423
FXUS64 KCRP 021736
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Today, moderate to
  major heat risk Wednesday.

The 500 mb ridge is still in place over the southern state and noses
back into southeast and south central Texas this morning. The models
continue with that through the day. Today`s temperatures will
continue to be 90 to 100F over the region with lower humidity again.
So will expect that we will have heat indices less than 110F (Heat
advisory level) with most places along the Coastal Bend briefly
getting to 109F. Haze will be present overnight with patchy fog
possible in locations near Alice. Otherwise the upper ridge remains
over the region on Wednesday, which will raise the temperatures a
degree or two, but also the moisture will increase as the PWATs
increase to 2.00". So the heat risk rises to moderate to major, as
large patches of the forecast area begin to rise above 110F for a
couple of hours. Some of the models have been hinting at some
showers, especially in the afternoon with the sea breeze. So have
mixed in a few of the models with the NBM (5-10% chance) to increase
the pops at some of the locations in the Coastal Plains, Victoria
Crossroads, and over the nearshore waters to around 15-20% chance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat related impacts are possible through
Thursday, diminishing through the weekend

-High uncertainty remains as we move into early next week due to
Hurricane Beryl

As previously forecast, high temperatures will continue to range
from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 in the Brush Country
Thursday. Heat index values will range from 105-109 across South
Texas, with portions of the Brush Country and the southern inland
Coastal Bend reaching 110-113. A Heat Advisory may be necessary for
these locations. Temperatures will moderate Friday as the ridge
moves to the east, but moisture will continue to increase, keeping
our heat index values in the 105-109 range. The increased moisture
will combine with a few shortwaves that will move across the area,
leading to a low chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as
this weekend.

The big concern will, of course, be the projected path of Hurricane
Beryl. The current NHC forecast indicates that Beryl will stay to
our south, but guidance still varies widely beyond Thursday. Once
again, we are still a bit early to determine any specific impacts
for South Texas. An increased risk of rip currents, long period
swell, and an elevated risk for minor coastal flooding will be
possible along the Middle Texas Coast as early as this weekend. It
is also possible that the outer bands of Beryl will reach South
Texas Monday and Tuesday but, due to the uncertainty, we have
continued with a blend of the NBM and CONSALL which brings us 15-30%
chance of rain over land early next week, with a 20-45% chance over
the coastal waters. With the influx of tropical moisture, any
convection that develops could produce heavy rainfall. In
coordination with WPC, we decided not to include our area in an
Excessive Rainfall Outlook just yet, but this will definitely be
revisited in upcoming forecast packages.

We will continue monitoring the situation, but now is an excellent
time to prepare for a potential tropical system: store documents in
a waterproof container, stock up on water and non-perishable food
items, and have a plan, just in case.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Expecting VFR conditions to mainly prevail throughout this TAF
period across South Texas. Except for VCT and possibly ALI where
MVFR conditions are possible due to fog. However probabilities are
lower than for this morning at less than 10% according to the SREF
model. Other models reflect VFR ceilings and visibilities which is
generally what is expected. Southeast winds will be light and
gusting during the afternoon hours up to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Weak to moderate southwest flow will back to the southeast by the
afternoon today. No showers are expected but Saharan Dust may linger
over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical
miles. Tonight the weak to moderate flow will veer south and then
back to the southeast on Wednesday with a slight chance for showers
in the afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to
continue through the end of the work week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this weekend. We continue to watch the
track and potential impacts of Hurricane Beryl on the Middle Texas
coastal waters, but it is still too early to determine what, if any,
impacts will be seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  94  80 /   0   0  10   0
Victoria          96  77  95  78 /   0   0  10   0
Laredo           101  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  76  98  77 /   0   0  10   0
Rockport          94  83  94  83 /   0   0  10   0
Cotulla          103  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  77  96  78 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  91  83 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...BF/80