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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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254 FXUS61 KCLE 012325 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 725 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through late Tuesday. A cold front tracks through the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night, then tracking back through as a warm front Thursday night. Another cold front then follows for late Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mostly clear skies remain on track for tonight with some cirrus at times. Previous discussion...This will be the quiet part of the forecast for this issuance with Canadian surface high pressure in control over the Great Lakes, then drifting towards upstate New York/New England by Tuesday night. This will allow for return flow into the region as it moves eastward, and will get a significant temperature jump for the max values Tuesday as thicknesses increase and 850mb temperatures increase as well. The forecast is dry, but will be awaiting a cold front that will be moving into the Great Lakes with POPs near the doorstep of the CWA in NW OH by the end of the Tuesday night time frame. Expect some increases in the cloud coverage along with wind increases as the pressure gradient becomes more of a factor through that Tuesday night period. Tuesday night low temperatures also considerably milder than tonight, which will find widespread 50s with some outlying 40s in northern OH and a bit more common in NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... The next round of rainfall and stormy weather will arrive late Wednesday into Wednesday night associated with a cold front. Ahead of that front will be a very warm and moist airmass across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. It will feel very muggy with the heat index in the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon. The thermodynamics later on Wednesday will support a marginal to slight potential for strong to severe storms to develop along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected to develop in the warm sector ahead of the front. There will be at least some weak height falls and moderately strong mid level westerlies to support adequate wind shear and organization of convection. Multicell bands and clusters of storms will be the possible storm mode with damaging wind gusts being the main severe weather hazard. The cold front will slow down and eventually stall south of the area either in central or southern Ohio late Wednesday night into Thursday as the steering flow will be parallel with the west to east surface front. Depending on exactly where and how far south this front will stall out will also affect what our rain chances will be here locally on Thursday. We will maintain chance for scattered showers and storms across northern Ohio and likely POPs closer to central Ohio or south of Highway 30 Thursday afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a couple rounds of convection and rainfall that may track across the region if this stalled front is closer to our area on Thursday and Thursday night. And that scenario or forecast trends that way, we may also see our heavy rainfall and flooding threat increase late this week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A stronger shortwave trough will move across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region Friday. This upper level feature will help the stalled front across Ohio lift back as a warm front Friday morning and another round of showers and storms. We will finally kick this system through our region Friday afternoon and night with another cold front advancing from west to east Friday evening. We will have to keep on eye on trends to see how much the atmosphere can destabilize after the morning round of rainfall associated with the warm front. There may also be some potential for severe weather late Friday. A weak area of high pressure will try to build in from the Midwest on Saturday with a drying trend in our weather. We may have some slight POPs for isolated showers early on Saturday. Another fast moving system may push across the Great Lakes region late in the weekend with another Chaunce for rainfall. Temperatures will be near or just slightly warmer than average for the end of the week through this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... High pressure over the Central and Eastern Great Lakes will maintain VFR weather through the TAF period. Thin cirrus clouds will pass overhead at times with no impact. Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less out of the north/northeast overnight. Winds will veer around to the southeast by morning and pick back up to 8-12 knots. ERI is likely to see a wind shift to the east or northeast during the afternoon on Tuesday. Outlook...Non-VFR expected in scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .MARINE... High pressure will settle inn over the region with marine weather conditions improving this evening. High pressure will move east for Tuesday and southeast return flow will start to overtake Lake Erie. A warm front will approach the lake during the daytime hours and likely hang around the southern shore by afternoon, allowing for more easterly flow over the water and southeast flow on land for a brief period. The front will clear the lake on Tuesday night and southerly flow will be favored, increasing on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. There could be a need for a brief Small Craft Advisory on Wednesday with the stronger offshore flow. The cold front will cross the lake by Wednesday night and light westerly flow will become favored across the basin. The front will stall over the Ohio Valley for Thursday and light generally offshore flow will be favored. This front will get lifted back north toward and across the lake on Friday and southerly flow will be enhanced a bit. There will be shower and storm chances for Wednesday through Saturday with an unsettled weather pattern in place. Some storms may need a short fused marine warning headline, especially on Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...KEC/26 SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Griffin