


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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054 FXUS61 KCLE 071927 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 327 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to sweep southeastward across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through this early evening. Behind the front, a ridge attempts to build from eastern Canada through this Friday. Simultaneously, the aforementioned front will waver in a north-south manner between Lake Erie and the Mid to Upper Ohio Valley as multiple weak lows move generally eastward along the front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WSW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through daybreak Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front augmented by convective outflow appeared to be located near a Jamestown, NY to Warren, OH to Polk, OH to Kenton, OH line at 3:25 PM EDT. This front will continue to drift SE`ward and should exit our CWA by 7 PM EDT this evening. Behind the front, a ridge builds from northern ON through daybreak Wednesday. Ahead of the cold front, daytime heating in the warm/moist sector has allowed for the development of moderate boundary layer CAPE amidst moderate effective bulk shear and unusually-high PWAT`s courtesy of a low-level return flow of very moist air from the Gulf. Diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer has yielded steep low- level lapse rates below somewhat drier mid-level air, which in turn, have yielded moderate DCAPE. Therefore, organized showers/storms capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms capable of producing straight-line wind damage via wet downbursts remain a concern through this early evening, especially farther to the southeast in our CWA, along and ahead of the surface front. Isolated flash flooding also remains a concern since ~20 knot WSW`erly mean mid-level flow will exhibit a large component parallel to the front, which will allow training, slow-moving showers/storms to develop along the front. Following the surface cold front passage, isolated multicell showers/storms will remain possible for several more hours as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the upper- reaches of the front release weak, elevated CAPE amidst continued moderate effective bulk shear. Fair weather is expected to return to our entire CWA by midnight tonight and then persist through daybreak Wednesday courtesy of stabilizing subsidence accompanying the aforementioned surface ridge. Behind the cold front, weak low-level CAA and partial clearing will allow lows to reach mainly the 60`s around daybreak Wednesday. Easing surface winds in response to a weakening MSLP gradient accompanying the ridge and residual low-level moisture from recent rainfall should contribute to patchy radiation fog development during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning, especially inland from ~73F Lake Erie. Any fog is expected to dissipate soon after daybreak Tuesday morning, with the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer, which will also tap into somewhat drier air farther aloft. Peeks of sunshine and daytime heating are expected to allow highs to reach the upper 70`s to lower 80`s in NW PA and the upper 70`s to mid 80`s in northern OH late Tuesday afternoon. Sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding relatively-cold Lake Erie and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will allow a lake breeze to form and penetrate up to several miles inland during the late morning through early evening. The coolest highs are expected within the lake breeze. Intervals of clear sky, light surface winds, and a somewhat drier low-level air mass are expected to promote efficient radiational cooling Tuesday evening through daybreak Wednesday, especially in NW PA, where lows should reach the upper 50`s to mid 60`s. In northern OH, lows should reach the lower 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should continue to affect our region during this period. At the surface, the aforementioned front should waver in a north-south manner between Lake Erie and the Mid to Upper OH Valley as multiple, weak frontal lows move generally E`ward and accompany the shortwave troughs. Each time the front wavers generally S`ward, the aforementioned surface ridge will rebuild from eastern Canada. The wavering front and a daily Lake Erie lake breeze front are expected to act as foci for the development of scattered showers/thunderstorms, amidst a moist low-level air mass (e.g. surface dew points in the 60`s to 70F) and weak to moderate CAPE belonging to parcels rooted in the low-level atmospheric column. Daytime heating is expected to allow CAPE and convection coverage to be greatest each afternoon through early evening. Modest deep-layer bulk shear should support the development of loosely-organized multicell showers and storms. The aforementioned thermodynamics and kinematics may contribute to some storms becoming strong to severe, especially each afternoon through early evening. Modest and W`erly mean mid- level flow should be roughly parallel to portions of the Lake Erie lake breeze front and synoptic front, which should support slow- moving, training convection and perhaps contribute to localized flash flooding concerns. Near- normal highs in the lower to mid 80`s are expected during the afternoon of Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Overnight lows mainly in the 60`s to lower 70`s are expected around daybreak on Thursday and Friday, respectively. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should continue to affect our region through Monday. At the surface, a somewhat stronger surface low preceding one of the shortwave trough axes should develop generally NE`ward from the north- central United States toward Hudson Bay. This should allow a warm front to sweep NE`ward through our region Friday night through Saturday morning. The warm front will allow a warmer and more-humid air mass originating over the Gulf to overspread our region. The low`s trailing cold front should remain west of our region and we should remain within the warm/moist sector through Monday. Daily afternoon highs should reach the 80`s to near 90F. Daily lows should reach mainly the lower 60`s to mid 70`s around daybreak Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected as the following lifting mechanisms interact with sufficient low-level moisture and release sufficient CAPE, including elevated CAPE: isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and preceding shortwave trough axes; convergence/ascent along the surface warm front, surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave troughs, and a daily Lake Erie lake breeze front. Shower/storm coverage and intensity should tend to be greatest each afternoon through early evening, as the moist boundary layer destabilizes via daytime heating. Primarily moderate deep- layer bulk shear may contribute to daily potential for some strong to severe storms. Sizable PWAT values will likely contribute to showers/storms producing periods of heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... A cold front will continue to track across the area this afternoon into this evening before slowing over the Ohio Valley tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed ahead of and along the front and will likely impact terminals generally east of KTOL/KFDY through early evening. Confidence is somewhat lower at KCLE since the front appears to be south of the terminal, but latest radar trends suggest that a cluster of thunderstorms over NW OH may clip or move just to the south of the terminal within the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Any showers/storms will likely remain to the south of KERI for the remainder of today. Ceilings are generally VFR with pockets of MVFR/IFR and expect this to continue through the rest of the afternoon. Any showers/thunderstorms that move directly over terminals could produce brief periods of IFR conditions and possibly variable/gusty winds in any stronger storms that manage to develop. Behind the front this evening into tonight, MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings are expected areawide with MVFR/IFR conditions likely developing in fog/low stratus early Tuesday morning. There`s some potential for LIFR conditions at terminals that end up receiving heavy rainfall so will need to continue to monitor forecast trends. Nearly all terminals will likely experience fog and low stratus for at least a brief period, however the vast majority of guidance favors more optimistic VFR conditions at KCLE during this timeframe. Any fog/lower stratus should generally improve to VFR as diurnal mixing develops after 12Z Tuesday. Winds ahead of the front will be out of the west before becoming more northerly by this evening. Flow will become light and variable overnight with winds along the immediate lakeshore likely remaining northerly at around 5 knots through the end of the TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday, best chance during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Northerly winds to around 10 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet in nearshore zones are expected as a cold front pushes south of Lake Erie this afternoon and tonight. Winds will likely become more light and variable by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds into the region and expect similar flow with sustained winds under 10 knots through Wednesday. Flow will become more east/southeasterly Thursday and Friday, but winds will remain below 10 knots. Lake breezes may result in periods of onshore flow and possibly a bit of choppiness in nearshore zones during the afternoon Tuesday through the end of the week. Marine conditions will remain relatively calm over the next several days, although afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Saturday. Winds/waves may be higher in thunderstorms. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...15 MARINE...15