509
FXUS61 KCLE 061755
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the Central Great Lakes today with a
cold front settling south behind it late tonight through Monday. The
front will stall south of the area on Tuesday as high pressure
builds in from the north. The above mentioned front will waver north
and south through the end of the week and result in an active
weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Above normal temperatures continue for one more day as we remain in
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Most areas will
see highs in the low 90s today as the upper ridge continues to shift
east. While dewpoints in the east will mix out some, locations
in the west and near Lake Erie will hold steady or creep up
into the upper 60s to near 70s degrees and push heat indices
into the upper 90s, extending as far east as Cleveland. In
additions skies will tend to be mostly sunny until cloud cover
and chances of precipitation arrive from the west later in the
afternoon.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the
Upper Midwest with a surface trough extending from northern Lake
Huron to west of Chicago this morning. A capping inversion along
with dry air in the mid-levels will limit thunderstorms potential
until deeper moisture along a prefrontal trough moves into NW Ohio
during the late afternoon and early evening. Depending on cloud
cover, ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are likely in NW Ohio. NW
Ohio will also reside on the southern periphery of stronger mid-
level winds over lower Michigan and can not rule out a storm or two
with 50-60 mph wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted areas from the I-75 corridor east to about Port Clinton
with a marginal risk of Severe Weather today.

Activity is expected to dwindle overnight with the loss of heating
and an overall weakening of the shortwave aloft. The front stalls
out across NW Ohio until the next shortwave trough arrives and
pushes the front through the local area on Monday. Showers will
develop on Monday as both daytime heating and convergence along the
surface boundary increase again. By midday expect to see good
coverage of showers and thunderstorms towards the I-71 corridor
which will move east through the afternoon. The airmass will be
moist with dewpoints at or above 70 degrees and PW values that look
to exceed 2 inches. Some training is also possible with storm motion
aligned parallel to the front. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding
will be a concern with thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. In
addition, will need to monitor any stronger thunderstorms for
damaging winds with wet microbursts. Localized pockets of 1-2" of
rain are certainly possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The front and associated precipitation will push south of the area
on Monday night with high pressure building in for Tuesday.
Temperatures will be back to near normal values for highs with
dewpoints at least settling back into the low to mid 60s. This will
not entirely relieve the humidity but will feel noticeably cooler
than the Holiday weekend. The forecast is dry through Tuesday night
and lows in the low to mid 60s will be well received.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern is setting up for the remainder of the
long term forecast. The upper air pattern transitions from a ridge
over the western United States and a broad trough over eastern
Canada to a quasi-zonal flow aloft to end the week. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms return to the local area on Wednesday
as a shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley and moisture
spreads back north into the forecast area. Timing and placement
of precipitation is unclear but scattered thunderstorms are
likely during the afternoon. Typical summer heat and humidity
will allow for additional thunderstorms on Thursday but may be
located more inland as the trough axis to the north pivots
through the eastern Great Lakes. This is followed on Friday and
Saturday with a series of shortwaves aloft. Any details will be
hard to resolve at this time scale but will need pops through
the end of the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
tend to be near normal values for mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Aloft, SW`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect our region
through 18Z/Mon as a ridge drifts generally E`ward, away from
the U.S. east coast and a trough lingers over the north-central
U.S. and vicinity. At the surface, a ridge continues to exit
generally SE`ward before a cold front begins to move SE`ward
across our region around 07Z/Mon. This front should be located
just east of KERI and KGKJ, and just east and south of KYNG by
18Z/Mon. Behind the front, another ridge attempts to build from
northern ON. Ahead of the cold front, our regional surface
winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots. These winds
will gust up to 20 knots at times through ~23Z/Sun. Behind the
front, winds veer to W`erly to NW`erly around 5 to 10 knots.

Widespread VFR persist for the time being. Along and ahead of
the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
have developed across portions of southern Lower MI and vicinity
as of 17:55Z/Sun. The coverage of these showers/storms is
expected to expand generally S`ward through this early evening
as the pre-convection, moist boundary layer continues to
destabilize via daytime heating. Accordingly, this convection is
expected to persist generally ENE`ward and impact NW OH,
including KTOL and KFDY, late this afternoon through early
evening. These isolated to scattered showers/storms should then
persist farther ENE`ward across portions of our region later
this evening through 12Z/Mon. There is greater potential for
this convection to impact KMFD/KCLE/KERI compared to KCAK and
KYNG since nocturnal cooling should allow a pronounced N`erly
gradient in instability to develop later this evening through
daybreak Monday as ~77F Lake Erie becomes warm relative to
overlying air and surface air over surrounding land.

Additional isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected along and ahead of the cold front and should impact our
region from ~04Z/Mon through 18Z/Mon. Behind the surface
portion of the cold front, widespread MVFR ceilings near 2kft
AGL are expected through 18Z/Mon. Rain showers associated with
the upper-reaches of the front should persist for several hours
behind the surface cold front passage. Note: periods of heavy
rain are likely with any showers/storms. Thunderstorms may
produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots,
especially through 00Z/Mon and after 16Z/Mon.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through this Friday. Greatest
potential for showers/storms exists during the afternoon through
early evening of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Friday. A high pressure ridge
exits SE`ward from the Lake Erie region before a wavy cold front
drifts SE`ward across the lake tonight through Monday night.
Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds persist ahead of the front and
veer to NW`erly with the front`s passage. Farther behind the
front, winds veer to N`erly to NE`erly as a ridge attempts to
build from northern ON. On Tuesday through Friday, winds are
expected to be variable in direction since the aforementioned
front should waver in a north-south manner between the Upper and
Mid OH Valley and Lake Erie as multiple weak surface lows move
generally E`ward along the front. Simultaneously, the
aforementioned ridge should continue to attempt to build from
eastern Canada. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday through Friday,
respectively, due to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka