544
FXUS61 KCLE 292052
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight. High
pressure will build behind the cold front Sunday through Monday.
A warm front will lift northward across region Tuesday, followed
by another cold front passing through Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weather has calmed down after a broken line of showers and a
few severe thunderstorms moved across the area. Currently, we
have some subsidence over the area behind the impulse that
caused the earlier convection today. As we head into this
evening, model guidance has been indicating the potential for
some scattered convection to redevelop between 6 pm and 10 pm
later this evening as the cold front starts to move into
northwest Ohio.

The cold front is not well defined at this time over northern
Indiana and Lower Michigan. This surface boundary will become
slightly better defined later this evening as it starts to make
a push eastward. The atmosphere closer to NWOH has become
increasingly unstable with MLCAPE values approaching 2500 to
3000 j/KG and plenty of shear up to 45 knots. The one missing
component is a trigger or healthy boundary to get convection to
fire up. We will maintain a 30 to 40 percent POPs through the
late evening for additional scattered showers and convection to
try to develop near the advancing cold front.

A marginal to slight risk for isolated severe convection
may continue into the late evening with the better potential
being near NWOH. The atmosphere will slowly stabilize as we go
further into the overnight and any evening convection will
likely lose their energy as they move eastward across northern
Ohio. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard if
any stronger storm can get organized this evening. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible with any slow moving convection.
We have left the Flood Watch as is through the mid evening
because of the possibility of additional rainfall.

Sunday will be much cooler behind the passage of the cold front
tonight. We will have some clouds with breaks during the morning
but skies will gradually become partly cloudy to fair skies
later in the day. High temperatures will be below average for
the last day of June, in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure
will build over the Great Lakes region Sunday night with
clearer skies. Overnight temps Sunday night will be cool in the
lower and middle 50s away from the lakeshore. A few upper 40s
could be possible in the cooler prone valleys of NEOH and NWPA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Regions will
bring a very nice weather day on Monday with sunshine and low
humidity. High temps will continue to be below average in the
lower to middle 70s for Monday afternoon. The high pressure
system will move eastward towards New England on Tuesday and a
southerly flow will return. The humidity and warmer temperatures
will also come back starting Tuesday. High temps will be back in
the lower to middle 80s areawide. NWOH and the Cleveland metro
area may be back in the upper 80s and feeling summerlike by
Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather is expected to start off the new
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next system to bring rainfall and unsettled weather will
arrive late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front
will sag southward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon and slowly push through northern Ohio and NWPA
Wednesday night. This will be our next chance for showers and
storms. Model guidance is showing that this frontal boundary
will become parallel with the mid and upper level flow by
Thursday of next week. This frontal boundary will likely stall
out from west to east across Ohio and may waffle around Thursday
into Friday. We will have to keep an eye on any mid level
impulses tracking through the westerly flow that may help
develop rounds of convection near this stalled front late in the
week. There is a signal for that kind of setup in the model
guidance. Temperatures will be near or above average through the
end of next week and feeling summery during the July 4th
Holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
We have active weather moving through NEOH and NWPA this
afternoon causing some impacts to aviation through roughly 21z.
A broken line of heavier showers and embedded strong to severe
convection is moving through our far NEOH and NWPA areas but
recent trends indicate this weather system has been slowly
weakening and a couple hours from moving out of our local area.
We have some MVFR to possibly brief IFR conditions from these
showers and storms for YNG, ERI, and CAK through 20z. There are
TEMPO groups highlighting this timing and brief drops in
ceilings and visibility due to heavier showers and storms. We
will see improving conditions slowly moving from west to east
across the areas that are being impacted with convection early
this afternoon. VFR ceilings and conditions will return for all
TAF sites by late this afternoon into the evening.

We will have a weak cold front push through after 06z tonight
with a wind shift from southwest winds to northwest winds during
the predawn hours of Sunday morning. Southwest winds will be
between 8 and 12 knots through early this evening with some
afternoon gusts up to 20 or 25 knots before sunset. Winds will
relax somewhat after sunset this evening ahead of the advancing
cold front. Winds will be from the northwest 10 to 15 knots
Sunday morning through the end of the TAF period or midday
Sunday. Gusty winds up to 25 knots will return after 15z Sunday
morning. Ceilings may drop to MVFR with the passage of the cold
front and for a few hours behind the front through the mid
morning Sunday. Ceilings will lift up to VFR category by late
morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across Lake Erie late tonight. A wind
shift from the northwest will follow behind the frontal passage
late tonight into early Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 10
to 20 knots are expected Sunday and will make for choppy
conditions. Conditions may be near Small Craft criteria with
waves of 3-4 feet and moderate swim risk are possible for the
central and eastern lakeshore waterways. Winds will start to
decrease Sunday night as high pressure starts to build over the
Great Lakes. High pressure will remain in control of the weather
pattern Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become northeasterly by
Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday.
The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Griffin