Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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611 FXUS61 KCLE 301331 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 931 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region this morning. High pressure will build behind the cold front for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. A warm front will lift north along the back side of high pressure on Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area for Wednesday and cross on Wednesday night. This front will hang up in the Ohio Valley for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 930 am update... There were no impactful adjustments needed with the ongoing near term forecast as it remains on track at this time. The cold front has clear through our far eastern counties and CWA as of 9 am. The last of the isolated convection associated with the cold front has also clear our eastern CWA. We will see a northerly flow today with a cooler and much drier airmass advecting in. There will be some passing clouds with peaks of sunshine through midday. Clouds will slowly decrease later today but some lake effect clouds may linger into this this evening downwind of Lake Erie across far NEOH and NWPA. Previous update... Clouds and isolated convection are pushing east of the area this morning. There will be a batch of brief clearing before another round of clouds comes into the region with the cold front and some more notable northwest winds enter the region with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Previous Discussion... A boundary stretches along the Ohio/Michigan border and across Lake Erie in western New York. This boundary is triggering some showers and isolated storms over Lake Erie early this morning. For now, most of the convection is moving into western New York, but expect more coverage in showers as the boundary reaches the Ohio and Pennsylvania shorelines. Have PoPs increasing over the next several hours for this feature. The main cold front remains well to the north across central Lower Michigan. This front should make it into the forecast area by about daybreak. Winds will shift solidly to the northwest with increasing gusts of 25-30 mph or so. Additional clouds will move into the region with the front. These clouds along with cold air advection with the front will limit the daytime high temperatures today and it may just be a flat line around 70 degrees. For many locations, high temperatures for the calendar day already occurred at midnight and will not return to those values this afternoon. Some isolated showers could pop up in NE OH and NW PA late this afternoon with the final push of the front, but confidence is low at this time. High pressure will build into the region tonight and there will be a dry, clearing trend. Temperatures will fall considerably into the 50s throughout and perhaps the upper 40s, especially where clouds can clear faster and some decoupling can occur. This system will persist into Monday with dry and clear conditions. High temperatures will be below normal for the first day of July with mid 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A ridge aloft builds from the western Great Lakes and vicinity and eventually crests E`ward over our region during the Monday night through Tuesday time period. Simultaneously, the surface portion of the ridge exits slowly E`ward from the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge will allow fair weather to persist in northern OH and NW PA. In NW PA, overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 40`s in the interior valleys to the upper 50`s along the Lake Erie shore around daybreak Tuesday. Northern OH is expected to have lows reach mainly the lower 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday. Late afternoon highs on Tuesday are expected to reach the upper 70`s to mid 80`s due, in part to strengthening synoptic-scale WAA along the western flank of the low-level ridge. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of NW PA and within several miles of Lake Erie since sufficient daytime heating of surrounding land and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will likely allow a lake breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening hours. The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward and is followed by cyclonic W`erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave disturbances, and surface troughing Tuesday night through Wednesday night. In addition, a warm front is still poised to sweep N`ward through our CWA Tuesday night and usher-in a much warmer/more humid air mass originating over the Gulf of Mexico. A cool front is still expected to sweep SE`ward through northern OH and NW PA Wednesday night and usher-in a slightly-cooler and less humid air mass. The lifting mechanisms (i.e. shortwave disturbances/attendant surface trough axes and fronts) are expected to release weak to moderate instability, including elevated instability, and trigger periodic showers/thunderstorms, especially Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Model guidance continues to depict a favorable environment for a lake breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening hours of Wednesday, along/near the Lake Erie shore from NE`ern Cuyahoga County to Erie County, PA. The lake breeze front is also expected to act as a focus for shower/storm initiation. Moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear will allow convection to be organized. Severe thunderstorms are possible given the projected thermodynamic/kinematic environment, especially Wednesday afternoon through early evening, when daytime heating of the warm/moist sector boundary layer will allow MUCAPE to be maximized. Overnight lows are forecast to reach mainly the lower 60`s to lower 70`s Tuesday night and Wednesday night, respectively. The combination of some daytime heating and low-level WAA will allow highs to reach mainly the mid 80`s to lower 90`s during the late afternoon on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Periodic showers/thunderstorms are expected on Thursday (the 4th of July) through Saturday as SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley, net surface troughing persists, and the aforementioned front wavers generally south-to-north and vice versa over/near our area in response to the shortwave trough passages. The front will separate a warmer/more humid air mass to the south from a slightly-cooler/less humid air mass to the north. At least moderate deep layer bulk shear and weak to moderate instability belonging to parcels rooted in the low-level atmosphere will allow convection to be organized and potentially strong to severe at times. Daily afternoon highs are expected to reach mainly the 80`s on Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows are expected to reach the 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Friday and Saturday, respectively. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... An area of MVFR ceilings and isolated showers continues east across NE OH and NW PA this morning. There will remain a brief window for non-VFR ceilings in the immediate term. The main cold front has passed KTOL and will continue southeast to help clear this bath of clouds. Behind the front some MVFR to low VFR level clouds will spread into the region. Believe that KCLE and KERI will have the best window of MVFR ceilings with some help from Lake Erie. In Northwest Ohio, clouds may remain scattered enough to just stay at VFR with some hit and miss low VFR clouds. Northwest winds will increase behind the front with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range. Some spotty showers could try to reform in the afternoon in NE OH and NW PA with the upper trough axis moving through, but confidence is low at this time. Ceilings will trend toward VFR later in the TAF period as high pressure builds into the region and cloud will completely clear overnight. Winds will relax with sunset this evening and trend more northerly with time. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 AM EDT this morning to 8 AM this Monday for nearshore waters from Avon Point to Ripley. A corresponding Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for the lakeshore from Cuyahoga County to Erie County, PA. Farther west, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM this Monday for nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point. Accordingly, a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for the Lorain County shore during the same time period. A cold front continues sweeping SE`ward across Lake Erie this morning and should clear the lake by about daybreak. The front`s passage will cause SW`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to veer to NW`erly as waves remain 3 feet or less through daybreak this morning. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Tuesday. This ridge will be accompanied by NW`erly to N`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots later this morning through daybreak Monday. In response to these winds, waves are expected to remain 3 feet or less in the western basin and build to as large as 3 to 5 feet farther east later this morning through tonight. Primarily N`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Monday are expected to veer to SE`erly Monday night as waves subside to 3 feet or less. The SE`erly winds are expected to give way to a lake breeze (i.e onshore flow) around 5 to 15 knots late Tuesday morning through early evening as waves remain 3 feet or less. SE`erly winds are forecast to veer to S`erly and freshen to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday night as the ridge exits E`ward and a warm front sweeps N`ward across Lake Erie. Waves remain 3 feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters and build to as large as 4 feet in open U.S. waters. S`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots on Wednesday veer to W`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots with the E`ward passage of a cold front Wednesday night. Waves trend 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected in open U.S. waters on Wednesday. Behind the cool front, another ridge builds from the western Great Lakes. This ridge is expected to be accompanied by variable winds around 5 to 10 knots on Thursday as waves subside to 2 feet or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday morning for OHZ010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for PAZ001. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ145. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Griffin/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Jaszka