106
FXUS61 KCAR 301737
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
137 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will build
in from the west tonight into Monday and crest south of the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will
cross the area late Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
135 pm update...
Wmfnt has lifted into the area with interior Downeast into the
low 80s and dwpts in the low 70s. This is bringing SBCAPES up to
2500 J/kg nosing into the area from southern Maine. Initial line
of storms along pre-frontal trof acrs the north have
underperformed with the main line now developing acrs central
areas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8pm with first
warning of the day out for the Moosehead Lake area. Significant
shear in combination with significant CAPES continues to pose
the threat for considerable damaging winds, along with potential
for quick spin-ups.

Prev discussion blo...
Low pressure tracking north of the area today will pull a cold
front into the region today. The front will cross the north
around midday and continue through southern parts of the region
late this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely along the front
and the potential exists for some severe storms producing strong
gusty winds and hail, possibly large hail in some areas.
Forecast convective indices early this morning are showing the
highest CAPE of around 2000-3000 J/KG are expected across
central and interior southern locations this afternoon with less
CAPE of around 1000-1500 J/KG across the north. Shear is
projected to be strong with 50-60 kts of shear at 0-6 KM across
the region. Some of the hi-res models are also showing potential
for bowing segments across south central areas this afternoon.
SPC continues to keep us in a slight risk throughout the region.
Analysis of the indices and the structure and timing of the
front seem to favor the best chance for severe weather across
central and interior southern parts of the area through mid to
late afternoon. Severe storms can`t be ruled out further north
but may depend on how much solar heating takes places ahead of
the front through the midday hours to boost CAPE. Will carry
enhanced wording including damaging winds and large hail south
of a line from Presque Isle southwest across the Katahdin
region, but inland from the coast.

Thunderstorms may last into early this evening Downeast as the
front pushes to the coast. Cooler, drier air will follow the
front overnight as high pressure pushes in from the west
bringing some clearing from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Monday an upper trough will cross the FA, but in the wake of
a strong cold front that crosses the area Sunday the air mass
will be much drier with PWATs down to around 0.75" and dew
points will drop back into the comfortable 40s across the north
and low to mid 50s along the coast. The upper trough and cool
pocket aloft will lead to the development of cumulus and at
worse a very isolated shower, but most areas will be rain-free
all day. The best chance of an isolated shower looks to be over
Washington County. Highs will be seasonable for the first day of
July and mostly in the 70s.

The upper trough moves east Monday night and surface high pressure
builds into the region. Cumulus fields will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating and it will be a clear and comfortable
night. In fact, many of the normally cooler valleys in the north
will likely drop into the 40s with low to mid 50 elsewhere.

High pressure remains over the area Tuesday and the air mass warms
quite a bit.  Under a good deal of sunshine highs will likely get
into the low 80s for most inland areas, but a sea breeze will keep
it cooler along the coast. In the absence of return flow the
dew points will inch up just a tad, but will remain quite
comfortable by July standards.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slowly drifts south and east of the region Tuesday
night setting up weak return flow. It should remain dry and
tranquil with lows mostly in the 59s. The return flow increases
Wednesday and the dew points will be on the increase as a south
to southwest wind increases acoss the region. Clouds will
increase and the air mass will be warm so highs should reach
into the lower 80s for most inland areas despite the increase in
clouds.

A warm front followed by a cold front will work across the area
Wednesday night and on Thursday (July 4th) with more clouds and
increasing chances of showers. Although there will likely be
some showers around on the 4th it does not look like a wash-out
with more of the time likely to be dry than wet. In the wake of
this front the weather pattern becomes more uncertain as most
of the models bring in some form of a trough and surface low or
lows from the west later Friday into Saturday, but the details
and timing remain very uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR over northern terminals with showers and VCTS
expected this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorms
possible at BGR and BHB this afternoon. BHB will remain LIFR
through 07z Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR Monday through Wednesday. N wind around 10 knots
Monday with a few higher gusts, becoming light Monday night.
Light and variable wind Tuesday, becoming S/SW increasing 5 to
15 knots and gusty Wednesday. Conditions will likely lower to
MVFR Wednesday night and Thursday in lower clouds and showers,
and possibly to IFR late Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
especially at KBHB and KBGR. S/SW wind 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up through this evening for wind gusts
up to 30 kt today and seas up to 6 ft today into this evening.
Winds and seas should drop below SCA late tonight.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are likely to remain below small
craft advisory levels Monday through Wednesday. As the
south/southwest flow increases on Thursday it is possible that
the seas, especially on the outer waters may start to build
toward 5 ft by later in the day or at night. Fog chances will
also likely increase toward the middle of the week as the air
mass becomes warmer and more humid over the colder ocean
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Buster
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/Buster/CB
Marine...Bloomer/Buster/CB