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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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220 FXUS61 KCAR 302330 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 730 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight into Monday and crest south of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 730pm Update: Thunderstorms have moved offshore and have become elevated over more stable marine air. The cold front remains well to the north near Millinocket and Houlton, but is quickly progressing southward. Poor mid level lapse rates and dry air advection, particularly over the mid levels, should preclude any additional thunderstorm development. However, a stray shower remains possible this evening along the front, particularly Downeast and along the coast where dew points remain in the mid to upper 60s and isentropic upglide of the frontal surface over the marine layer could enhance lift. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled for all areas, and the Small Craft Advisory was ended for the intracoastal waters with this update. The exit of thunder and PoPs out of the area was accelerated with this update given trends in radar and observations. Previous Discussion: Skies clear from north to south tonight with Monday starting out mostly sunny over northern parts of the area, followed by the entire area becoming sunny by the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of the week, with clear skies Monday night into the day on Tuesday and light winds. This pattern is also a favorable pattern for prime radiational cooling, which will allow for temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to potentially into the 40s across the north. For the Downeast region, temperatures may fall just below average into the mid 50s. The ridge of high pressure will gradually shift eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift to out of the southwest and warm air advection to return to the region. Cloud cover will also begin to increase on Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the west. Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures will still warm, with highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front may begin to cross the area Wednesday night, bringing the next round of rain showers through the area into the day on Thursday. Current guidance suggests that as the parent low begins to occlude, support of the cold front will falter, and rain showers may become scattered as the front weakens during its passage. Another region of high pressure should follow the cold front on Friday, allowing for the area to dry out. This high pressure may not last long, as another low pressure system approaches for the weekend, bringing the next chance for widespread rain. That said, guidance remains inconsistent with when or where this low pressure will track, though there seems to be more confidence in the low tracking somewhere across Maine sometime this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through Monday except at BHB where low clouds which were previously scoured out by convection will return for a few hours this evening before dissipating again around 6z. Winds remain or shift north this evening, with gusts up to 20 kt possible during the day Monday. SHORT TERM: Mon night - Tues night: VFR across all terminals under clear skies, VFR clouds increasing late Tues. Winds light and variable. Wed: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S to SW at 5 to 10 kts. Wed night - Thurs: VFR cigs continue, along with scattered rain showers moving through early Thurs morning through the day on Thurs. Winds S to SW at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. Fri: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Advisory level seas continue over the outer waters through this evening. West winds this evening shift around to the north Monday morning with gusts up to 20kts intially. Seas drop below 4ft in the morning and conditions remain below advisory levels from late tonight through Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels through the middle of the week. For Thursday into Friday, southerly swell could increase seas towards 5 ft on the coastal waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Buster/MStrauser Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Buster/MStrauser/AStrauser Marine...Buster/MStrauser/AStrauser