067
FXUS61 KCAR 030948
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
548 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide southeast of the region today. A warm
front will cross the region tonight through early Thursday. A
weak cold front will stall along the Downeast coast Thursday
night. The front then slowly lifts back north Friday into
Saturday. Another weak cold front will begin to cross the
region Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the area will bring a mostly sunny morning.
Some high clouds will begin to increase today ahead of a weak
trough of low pressure approaching from the west. A few spotty
cumulus will also form this afternoon. By this afternoon, the
sky will be partly to mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy
south with sun dimmed by high clouds. The gradient between high
pressure sliding off to the east and the approaching trough
will bring an increasing southerly breeze this afternoon.

A "low level jet" (LLJ) will likely form over the St. Lawrence
Valley late tonight funneling warmer and more humid air north
toward the Laurentians. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms
may form in the St. Laurence Valley and then stray east into
northern parts of our region. However, these showers will likely
weaken as they cross our western mountains and lose the support
of the LLJ. A chance of showers, and slight chance of a
thunderstorm in the far northwest, will be introduced tonight.
Otherwise, tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and a bit
warmer than last night with a light southerly breeze continuing.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will move northeast of the region Thursday morning.
A weak cold front will then begin to cross later Thursday. Will
have a slight chance/chance of showers across northern and
central portions of the forecast area early Thursday with the
exiting warm front. Will then have a chance of showers, along
with a slight chance of thunderstorms, in the same areas
Thursday afternoon with the weak cold front. Otherwise, expect
mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across northern areas Thursday
with partly sunny skies Downeast. The weak cold front will reach
the Downeast coast and stall later Thursday night. Could still
have a chance of showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm,
across northern and central areas early Thursday night. Could
also have a slight chance of early showers Downeast. Otherwise,
expect partly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly cloudy
Downeast, Thursday night. The front then begins to slowly lift
back north in the form of a warm front Friday through Friday
night. Expect partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers
Friday. Will have a slight chance/chance of showers Friday
night along with partly/mostly cloudy skies. Humidity levels
will also begin to increase to the south of the warm front
Friday with dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 60s across
central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. Warm moist
air over the cold waters of the Gulf of Maine will lead to
increasing fog coverage Friday into Friday night. With onshore
winds, the fog will move inland to varying extents during the
night time and morning hours, tending to retreat back toward the
coast during the afternoon. Temperatures will be at near
normal, to slightly above normal, levels Thursday/Friday. The
coolest temperatures will occur along the Downeast coast with
onshore winds from the Gulf of Maine.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front will lift to northern Maine Saturday. Expect a
chance of showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms,
across the region Saturday along with mostly cloudy skies.
Morning fog across central and Downeast areas will retreat back
toward the Downeast coast during the afternoon. Another weak
cold front will begin to cross the region Saturday night keeping
a chance of showers across the region, along with a slight
chance of early thunderstorms. Fog will also begin to advance
inland again. The cold front will cross the region Sunday with
a chance of showers along with mostly cloudy/partly sunny
skies. Showers will end in the wake of the cold front Sunday
night. High pressure will cross the region Monday with
generally partly cloudy skies, though could also still have the
slight chance of an afternoon shower across northern areas. High
pressure will begin to exit to the east Tuesday. Expect partly
sunny skies Tuesday, with diurnal instability also supporting
the chance of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Expect near normal level temperatures Saturday. Above normal
level temperatures are then expected Sunday through Tuesday. The
coolest temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will generally
occur along the Downeast coast.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today
and tonight with a light southerly breeze increasing today and
continuing tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms, mostly central and north. Variable conditions
with any thunderstorms. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early. A chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms north early. Variable conditions
with any thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers Downeast
early. Generally VFR late with showers ending. However,
variable conditions with any fog Downeast. South/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Friday through Friday night...Generally VFR. Slight
chance/chance of mostly afternoon and overnight showers.
However, variable conditions Downeast with any fog early Friday
then again Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of showers.
Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Variable conditions
with any fog early. Southeast/south winds around 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Variable conditions with fog.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, in the morning. VFR/MVFR
during the afternoon. A chance of showers. Variable conditions
with morning fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight.
Humid air over the cooler waters will result in some light mist
and patchy fog through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/sea below small craft advisory levels
Thursday through Friday night. A slight chance of showers early
Thursday night, then again Friday afternoon and night. Shower
chances then persist through the weekend. Expect patchy fog
Thursday night into Friday. Areas of fog then expected Friday
night through the weekend.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross