Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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868 FXUS61 KCAR 302040 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 440 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight into Monday and crest south of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 440 pm update... Line of convection heading into interior Downeast along pre-frontal trough with isolated showers and thunderstorms remaining across the far north ahead of the cold front. Have cancelled the Watch across the north as airmass has been worked over from previous convection with unstable airmass over interior Downeast. Have not had any wind reports further south toward Bangor, which may have been impacted by marine layer with convection likely becoming increasingly elevated. No other chgs needed with this update. Prev discussion blo... Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 8pm this evening. Lines of convection continue to impact the CWA this afternoon heading into a much more favorable environment for severe weather, including tornadoes. Have already received a report of a funnel cloud along the Penobcot/Aroostook line. Expect this to continue as cams are showing the line continuing thru the southern part of the area this afternoon before moving offshore around 00z. As cold front moves through tonight, expect showers and storms come to an end late this evening. Skies clear from north to south tonight with Monday starting out mostly sunny over nrn parts of the area with entire area sunny by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the area through the first half of the week, with clear skies Monday night into the day on Tuesday and light winds. This pattern is also a favorable pattern for prime radiational cooling, which will allow for temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to potentially into the 40s across the north. For the Downeast region, temperatures may fall just below average into the mid 50s. The ridge of high pressure will gradually shift eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift to out of the southwest and warm air advection to return to the region. Cloud cover will also begin to increase on Wednesday ahead of the next low pressure system approaching from the west. Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures will still warm, with highs into the lower 80s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front may begin to cross the area Wednesday night, bringing the next round of rain showers through the area into the day on Thursday. Current guidance suggests that as the parent low begins to occlude, support of the cold front will falter, and rain showers may become scattered as the front weakens during its passage. Another region of high pressure should follow the cold front on Friday, allowing for the area to dry out. This high pressure may not last long, as another low pressure system approaches for the weekend, bringing the next chance for widespread rain. That said, guidance remains inconsistent with when or where this low pressure will track, though there seems to be more confidence in the low tracking somewhere across Maine sometime this weekend. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR over northern terminals with showers and VCTS expected this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorms possible at BGR and BHB this afternoon. BHB will remain LIFR through 07z Monday. SHORT TERM: Mon night - Tues night: VFR across all terminals under clear skies, VFR clouds increasing late Tues. Winds light and variable. Wed: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S to SW at 5 to 10 kts. Wed night - Thurs: VFR cigs continue, along with scattered rain showers moving through early Thurs morning through the day on Thurs. Winds S to SW at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. Fri: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Small craft continues through late this evening with seas diminishing after midnight. West winds this evening shift around to the north Monday morning with gusts only up to 20kts intially. Seas drop below 4ft in the morning. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels through the middle of the week. For Thursday into Friday, southerly swell could increase seas towards 5 ft on the coastal waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Buster/AStrauser Marine...Buster/AStrauser