793
FXUS62 KCAE 010807
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
407 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving through the region will bring
slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week.
Building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures
near the century mark by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon,
  especially across the southern FA.

An initial cold front has pushed through the region tonight,
slowly drifting southward as the night has gone onward. Very
little has changed weather wise with winds shifting out of the
north and some stratus the biggest changes of note at this
point. However, this will change through the day. A secondary
cold front will shift southward through the area from the north
and northeast, acting almost as a backdoor cold front. Ahead of
this, moisture is expected to pool across our southern 1/3rd of
counties, creating another chance for showers and storms across
these areas. Shower/storm chances look to increase after 18z and
last through mid afternoon or so. Bumped pops slightly northward
this run, as well, as models seem slightly too progressive with
the front. So overall, best chances for storms should be along
and south of I20 this afternoon with drier air filtering in
behind the front tonight. Highs today should be in the upper 80s
and lower 90s, with lows tonight in the upper 60s got most.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A brief respite from the heat and humidity.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: This should be the coolest most
refreshing day of the period. The front will be south of the
area, and drier/cooler air will still be filtering in from the
north. Can not rule out an isolated shower over the southern cwa
due to the proximity of the front and slightly deeper moisture
in that area, but the majority of the cwa will remain dry. Highs
will be in the middle to upper 80s, with the apparent
temperatures ever so slightly cooler due to the drier air in
place. Lows range from the middle 60s to around 70.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: During this period, the upper
ridge will slowly begin to build back eastward, and moisture
will also begin to return to the region. Center of the ridge
axis will remain west of the cwa, but with rising heights,
afternoon highs will reach back up to around 90 degrees. Low-
level winds turn more easterly, bringing a return of Atlantic
moisture. This will cause a noticeable increase in the heat
index values as they will feel like the mid to upper 90s. Along
with the moisture increase, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible by the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows
drop down to around 70 degrees for one more night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and humidity returns back to the region as high pressure
  aloft rebuilds once again.

Thursday into the weekend, the upper ridge build across the
area, along with a noticeable increase in moisture in lower
levels. This will bring the return of above normal temperatures.
Blended guidance brings highs on Thursday and Friday back into
the mid to upper 90s, and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
expected through the weekend. Unfortunately, with the return of
the moisture, heat index values will rise back up to around heat
advisory criteria for much of the cwa by next weekend. The ridge
may weaken slightly by Sunday, allowing a surface front to
approach the area from the north. Confidence not high that this
front will be able to make it into the cwa.

As for rainfall, guidance does show at least isolated to
scattered diurnal convection beginning on Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are expected to develop over the next couple of
hours at all sites, lasting through mid-morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be confined to the Augusta and
Orangeburg terminals this afternoon and evening.

Cold front is slowly pushing towards the forecast area, with
earlier showers/thunderstorms either diminishing or shifting to
our south. Two fronts are expected to pass during this period:
an initial one in the next couple of hours that will offer a
wind shift and then a more substantial front later this morning
that should lower moisture. Stratus is developing behind this
initial front north of the TAF sites, with IFR restrictions
expected to build southward through 07z-08z. These should be
mainly ceiling restrictions but some patchy fog should build as
well especially given that many areas saw rain yesterday and
low-level winds are light. Expect clouds to hang around until
mid-morning before lifting. Expecting the secondary front to
slow and stall near the southern FA, with showers and
thunderstorms likely to impact AGS/DNL/OGB at some point or
another. Winds are expected to be easterly or northeasterly by
this afternoon between 5 and 15 knots. By tonight,
showers/storms should diminish in coverage with a potential
round of stratus on the other side of this forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional stratus and afternoon
shower-storms likely Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values and precipitation chances remains relatively low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$