428
FXUS62 KCAE 020539
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south of the area this afternoon and
tonight. Slightly cooler and drier air will spread into the area
through Tuesday. Moisture will slowly increase across the area
mid to late week. High pressure building aloft by mid to late
week will result in well above normal temperatures by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler behind a front tonight with isolated showers in the
  southern area.

Surface analysis indicates that the cold front is just south of
the forecast area with drier air pushing in from the northeast.
Some isolated shower activity remains possibly near the front
but otherwise drier and cooler tonight with lows in the mid-60s
in the north to low 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A brief respite from the heat and humidity.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The upper trough will be off the New
England and Mid Atlantic coast with an upper ridge to our west
across the lower Mississippi Valley. The front appears to move
south of the area and drier and cooler air will advect south
from North Carolina. Precipitable water decreases to less than
an inch in the northern Midlands to near 1.5 inches south. RH
values 35% north to near 60% south. The Nam model is much
cooler than other guidance mainly due to considerable low
cloudiness. Think these clouds are a little overdone, but clouds
may linger in the southern areas until drier air spreads south
in the afternoon. So went with a consensus incorporating the NBM
25th percentile temps. This gives me mid 80s across the region.
The air mass appears mainly stable in the afternoon and think
at most, an isolated shower is possible in the southeast
Midlands and CSRA. But cut pops from previous forecast and
overall NBM pop guidance. Overnight temps near or slightly below
normal, 65 to 70 degrees.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...The upper ridge will be building
east across the area and expect subsidence to increase. Moisture
appears tor remain quite low across the region although late in
the day, precipitable water increases in the Piedmont around
850mb ridge. Air mass appears stable. So, expect temperatures to
warm a bit to near normal values and any showers should be quite
limited. Lowered the pops to mainly less than 15 percent, i.e.,
below the NBM mean pop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and humidity returns back to the region as high pressure
  aloft rebuilds once again.

The upper ridge builds across the area and precipitable water
increases again to near or above 2 inches, especially by the
weekend. High confidence we will be at least reaching heat
advisory criteria by Saturday and possibly excessive heat
conditions as max temps reach 100 degrees or a little higher. As
moisture increases late week and the Piedmont trough sets up to
provide some low level convergence, expect an unstable air mass
leading to scattered mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms. The
upper ridge shifts to the coast over the weekend as a series of
low amplitude trough move from the northern Plains across the
Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. This will push a weak
front toward the area, possibly moving into the area Monday.
Ensembles are showing precipitable water > 2 inches by Sunday as
moisture flux increases ahead of the frontal system. Chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possibly increasing a bit as
the front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions likely at all TAF locations through the period,
with some low end MVFR cigs possible at OGB/AGS/DNL over the
next few hours.

Dry air has filtered into the forecast area, with most of the
clouds hanging off to the south of the TAF sites. Some MVFR
ceilings are trying to work their way into the southern sites,
and thinking is that OGB has the best shot at consistently
seeing ceilings between 2500 and 3000 feet for the next few
hours. AGS and DNL certainly may see some restrictions, but it
isn`t as likely so a TEMPO group will cover the possibility there.
Beautiful weather is expected after this diminishes, as the dry
air will remain in place through much of the period. Clouds will
be few to scattered, and winds should slowly veer from easterly
or northeasterly to southeasterly by the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions expected through midweek
outside of some early morning stratus which may briefly become
MVFR. Moisture returns late in the week with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms possible into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
possible may aid current dry conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...