Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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328 FXUS62 KCAE 270107 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 907 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very hot temperatures will continue into next week, with heat indices exceeding 105 F across the area today. Rain and storm chances start to increase Thursday with noticeable higher moisture building into the region. Much the same will continue through the weekend, with hot afternoon temps and a chance of rain each afternoon-evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another muggy night in store with increasing cloudiness. Its a breezy and warm evening across the Midlands and CSRA. Much like this time yesterday, there are convective debris clouds lingering across the eastern Midlands which should continue to dissipate during the next few hours. Unlike yesterday, high clouds are starting to move into the region from the northwest. Cloudiness will continue to increase through the overnight hours as a trough approaches though we should remain dry through the overnight hours barring an isolated shower this evening. The added clouds will limit cooling tonight with forecast lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Excessive heat continues with a significant increase in humidity levels and rainfall chances. A weak upper level trough pushes into the region on Thursday. This trough allows sub tropical moisture to advect inland which increases the precipitable water levels to above 1.75 inches. The forcing with the upper trough and the increase in mid level moisture should lead to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will again be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with heat indices 102-107 degrees. The upper level trough fills in over the Southeast U.S. Friday through Saturday which allows the high aloft to rebuild overhead. Precipitable water levels should be in excess of two inches both days. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to around 100 with heat indices in the 102-107 degree range. A Heat Advisory may be needed on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible given the deep moisture in place and daytime insolation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Above normal temperatures persist with excessive potential on Sunday. High pressure aloft retrogrades into the Southern Plains early next week in response to an upper level trough moving through the Great Lakes States and New England. A cold front associated with this upper level trough should move into the Carolinas and Georgia Sunday Night through Monday and increase rainfall chances. The lower H5 heights should allow high temperatures to decrease into the low to mid 90s Monday through Tuesday, before warming again on Wednesday. Precipitable water levels are expected to be in excess of two inches through this forecast period. There will be a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Heat indices may approach or exceed advisory criteria on Sunday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected during this forecast period, although increased coverage of afternoon and evening storms expected. Afternoon convection has waned and skies generally cleared this evening with a southerly wind around 10 knots to start the forecast. An upper trough to the west will approach overnight and some increase in higher clouds is expected through the morning. A 20-25 knot low level jet is forecast tonight which should limit fog formation as boundary layer winds stay up overnight. Guidance is not as aggressive with any stratus tonight so will continue with a VFR forecast. Winds are expected to shift more southwesterly as the upper trough moves into the region Thursday afternoon around 5 to 10 knots. Scattered convection is expected to develop after 17z-18z but confidence in location is uncertain so will hold off on mention of prevailing thunder in the forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased chance of showers-storms with restrictions each afternoon Thursday through Sunday as additional moisture moves over the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$