453
FXUS62 KCAE 020951
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
551 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler and drier air will spread into the area today.
Moisture will slowly increase across the area mid to late week.
High pressure building aloft by mid to late week will result in
well above normal temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

Beautiful weather expected today, with dry air and seasonal
temperatures combining to yield low heat index values and an
overall pleasant afternoon for July standards.

================================================================

High pressure is centered to our north still, with easterly and
northeasterly flow dominant across the region. Some stratus is
present across the southern forecast area, keeping temps a bit
elevated there when compared to the rest of the FA. Well-
advertised dry air has pushed into the forecast area, with the
central and northern Midlands experiencing low 60s dewpoints and
PWs less than 1.5". Tight moisture gradient is noted across the
southern FA at this point, likely owed a little bit to the
development of the stratus. Expecting the clouds to slowly creep
northward a bit by sunrise but in general should remain across
the southern FA.

Today looks beautiful, especially for July`s standard. The
airmass is very dry for this time of year, with dry low-levels
expected to yield dewpoints mixing even lower across the area as
we warm up today. This dry air should allow us to warm fairly
easily compared to what guidance had been forecasting the last
few days, with highs expected to get into the 88-92F range this
afternoon. But with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and low
60s this afternoon, this should be about as nice a day as you
can expect for this time of year. Higher PWs will remain over
the very far southern part of the CSRA and some guidance does
show an isolated shower developing in the easterly flow, but
thinking that this is unlikely to be widespread. Overnight
tonight, the surface high is forecast to shift and allow low-
level flow to shift out of the southeast and push moisture back
into most of the forecast area tonight, so look for lows back in
the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and humidity will once again begin to return to the
  region.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The upper trough and front that
had brought a brief reprieve from the heat and humidity will
begin to break down and retreat. Upper ridge west of the are
will begin building back to the east through the day, while at
the surface Atlantic moisture moves back into the area. The
building ridge aloft should help keep a lid on any convective
development across all but maybe the southern half of the cwa,
where isolated convection may become possible as the sea-breeze
moves inland. Afternoon high temperatures rise back up to around
normal, which is in the lower to middle 90s. Any daytime
convection will rapidly dissipate towards sunset with the loss
of heating. Overnight lows move upwards too, with readings in
the lower 70s expected.

Thursday and Thursday night: Independence Day will continue the
warming trend as the upper ridge becomes more centered across
the area. Highs in the mid to upper 90s return, and with
additional moisture moving into the cwa, afternoon heat index
values will rise to between 100-105. Only isolated convection
possible once again over the southern half of the area. Muggy
conditions expected overnight with lows in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat and humidity will continue as high pressure aloft
  rebuilds into the region.

Upper ridge will remain into the early weekend before an
approaching trough attempts to flatten and weaken the ridge
over the region, but with minimal impact to temperatures.
Afternoon highs through the weekend will be in the mid to upper
90s, with some areas probably reaching the century mark. A
weakening surface front will move towards the area Sunday into
Monday before probably stalling out over the northern Midlands
by Monday. Continued increase om moisture will combine with the
development of lee-side trough this weekend, and then the cold
front Monday, to keep isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected after morning stratus breaks up.

Widespread stratus has actually develop across the southern FA
tonight, impacting AGS/DNL/OGB. These clouds have largely held
around 2500`, so just MVFR has been noted and is expected to
continue being noted. This is expected to diminish in coverage
after 12z this morning, but may still hang around. Most guidance
that had this feature shows this, and it seems pretty reasonable
at this point. Dry air should maintain mostly sunny skies across
the rest of the area for the bulk of the day, keeping things
VFR. We`ll see winds shift to southeasterly by this evening,
slowing down overnight. Low-level flow will likely be
southeasterly as well tonight, casting some uncertainty as to
whether or not we see stratus develop again. The southeasterly
low-level flow vector favors it despite guidance not being on
board yet, so hedge towards possible MVFR restrictions
developing again tonight, especially at AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions expected through midweek
outside of some early morning stratus which may briefly become
MVFR. Moisture returns late in the week with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms possible into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
possibly may aid current dry conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...