Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
843 FXUS62 KCAE 280600 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 200 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Afternoon and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend with noticeably higher moisture building into the region. A cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Combination of heat and humidity will keep muggy conditions across the area. - Additional scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Day will start off with some low cloud cover, but once mixing begins, these clouds will begin to break. High pressure aloft will be building back into the area through the day, but there is still a surface boundary over the area helping to produce weak convergence. There should still be enough instability to produce another round of welcomed afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Model soundings showing inverted-v profile in lower levels, with weak steering flow. Can not rule out some gusty winds, and with pwat values around 2 inches, and with the potential for slow movement of storms, periods of heavy rainfall remain possible. Temperatures very similar to yesterday, reaching only into the lower 90s in most areas. However it will still feel quite muggy as heat index readings reach around 100 degrees. Rainfall lingers into this evening before dissipating by midnight. Another round of late night stratus or fog in areas that get rainfall. Overnight lows only falling into the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key messages: - Excessive heat concerns continue this weekend with headlines likely on Sunday. Additional rainfall likely. A strong upper level trough moves through the Great Lakes and New England this weekend. The best forcing with this synoptic feature remains well to the north of the Southeast U.S., however it does push a frontal boundary into the region. The combination of this frontal boundary and precipitable water values in excess of two inches will lead to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall should occur near the stronger thunderstorms which would be most welcome after a very dry start to June across the region. Excessive heat remains a concern with heat index values 102-107F on Saturday and 106-112F on Sunday. A Heat Advisory is likely on Sunday with the possibility of an Excessive Heat Warning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: - Brief cooling trend Monday through Tuesday before the heat returns by the Fourth of July. A frontal boundary continues to push south through The Midlands and CSRA on Monday and may end up south of the region on Tuesday. Noticeably cooler air should filter into the region during this time period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Monday with the frontal passage, but it should be drier on Tuesday north of the boundary. High pressure aloft rebuilds over the Southeast U.S. during the middle of next week which allows the heat and humidity to return by the Fourth of July. The chance of precipitation should be near climatology for early July. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of some scattered showers and storms this evening. Nearly calm winds in the boundary layer through early morning, along with plenty of low-level moisture, is expected to provide favorable conditions for some fog/stratus. HRRR and MOS guidance continue to show this, so have continue to included ceiling restrictions in stratus and visibility restrictions in fog lasting until around 13z or so. After that, improvements expected to occur by 14z with winds picking up from the southeast around 5 to 8 knots after 16z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible during the afternoon, but timing and coverage remains uncertain so will not include in this forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with restrictions each afternoon into early next week as additional moisture moves over the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$