649
FXUS62 KCAE 290617
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. Afternoon
and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend
with noticeably higher moisture building into the region. A cold
front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions
to start off the work week, but building high pressure will
allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warm and humid overnight with another round of fog/stratus
  likely in the morning

Early this morning: A few light showers still remain over the
northern Midlands, with additional coverage across the coastal
plains. Much of the forecast area will be dry overnight, with
only an isolated brief light shower possible through sunrise.
Clouds expected to develop overnight will keep lows mild, with
readings only in the middle 70s.

Today and Tonight: Weak surface boundary remains across the
area again today. Aloft, upper ridge builds back into the area
through the day. Although there will be plenty of moisture, with
pwat values above 2 inches, along with moderate instability, the
upper ridge may be strong enough as it builds in to limit
afternoon rainfall to isolated coverage. Highs similar to
yesterday, with readings mostly in the middle 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key messages:
- Excessive heat headlines likely on Sunday. Not as hot on
  Monday with a front entering the region.

A sweltering day is on tap for The Midlands and CSRA on Sunday ahead
of an approaching cold front. Expect high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s with heat indices in the 106-111F range. A Heat Advisory
is likely. An upper level trough passes well to the north of the
region, however it does push a cold front into South Carolina and
east central Georgia in the evening and overnight hours. Forecast
model soundings show an inverted V at lower levels and DCAPE values
are expected to be in the 1250-1500 J/KG range, therefore damage
wind gusts will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also a
concern with precipitable water values in excess of two inches. SPC
has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe weather.

The models differ on how far south the front progresses on Monday.
The model consensus pushes it south of I-20 which allows somewhat
cooler and drier air into the Northern Midlands. Areas of south of I-
20 should expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures should be 8 to 10 degrees cooler area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Brief break from excessive heat on Tuesday before the heat
  and humidity return later in the week.

A brief respite from the summer heat and humidity continues on
Tuesday with a frontal boundary along or south of the region. High
pressure aloft rebuilds over the Southeast U.S. during the latter
half of next week with temperatures once again well above normal
with increasing precipitable water values. Convective activity
should be mostly limited to near the sea breeze front and small
scale atmospheric interactions. Below normal rainfall during the
past month has led to dry vegetation which increases the risk of
fire starts, especially with upcoming Independence Day
celebrations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Areas of Low Clouds and/or Patchy Fog Possible overnight and
through daybreak.

Regional satellite showing a mixture of mostly clear skies and
mostly cloudy with mvfr ceilings. The lower ceilings are also
indicated at the Midlands taf locations of cae/cub.

Model guidance continues to be bullish on continuing to develop
additional mvfr low clouds through the night at all locations.
Any low clouds that develop will likely transition to scattered
cumulus or stratocumulus after daybreak with a chance for isolated
to scattered convection once again during the afternoon and evening
hours. With limited coverage at this time expected for any
rainfall, will leave mention out of all tafs for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with
restrictions each afternoon into early next week as additional
moisture moves over the region. Early morning fog-stratus
likely each as well.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$