839
FXUS62 KCAE 021824
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
224 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler and drier air will spread into the area today.
Moisture increases through the week and into the weekend with
isolated to widely scattered convection possible each afternoon.
Ridging builds into the area late this week and into the
weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat Index
values near 110 possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Dry and seasonably cool tonight

Upper ridge centered along the Gulf coast/Lower Mississippi
River Valley will be building east. Surface ridge pressure
centered over the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area.
Much drier air has advected south into the area from North
Carolina. Dew points are falling into the mid to upper 50s.
There remains a relatively tight moisture gradient across the
southeast Midlands and CSRA where precipitable water is ranging
from 2+ inches near a weak frontal boundary in the Low Country
and eastern GA to around 1.4 inches near OGB. Think any showers
this afternoon will stay mainly south/southeast of the CSRA as
focus should be closer to the front. The air mass is
stable/moisture shallow and any lift weak. Temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s with a few areas around 90 degrees. Mainly
clear early this evening, maybe some high clouds coming over
Mountains. The models are suggesting some stratus in easterly
flow overnight, mainly in the CSRA and southeast Midlands.
Overnight lows should be at or slightly below climatology, mid
60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Heat Index values up to 105 possible Thursday afternoon

Ridging over the Deep South will remain in place through the
short term. Surface high pressure will shift off of the East
Coast on Wednesday night, leading to increasing moisture for
Thursday.

With dry air still in place over most of the area for Wednesday
we don`t expect much in the way of rainfall. A few
showers/storms will be possible across the southern FA but a
subsidence inversion will hinder convection. HREF ensemble
members show little or no convective coverage across the
southern Midlands and CSRA on Wednesday afternoon. With moisture
creeping back into the area on Thursday there may be an
isolated shower or weak storm, but again the subsidence
inversion will hinder convective development. The higher
dewpoints and warmer temps expected on Thursday should push Heat
Index values into the 100 to 105 range. Reaching Heat Advisory
criteria seems unlikely at this time. Highs will warm through
the short term with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Heat Advisory Criteria possible Friday through Sunday
- Thunderstorm chances increase late this week and this weekend

Upper ridging will build eastward over the forecast area in the
first half of the long term. Moisture increases through SW flow
with mean PWAT values from global ensembles rising to around 2
inches Friday, remaining slightly above normal through the long
term.

Friday and Friday night: Expect partly cloudy conditions with
weak southerly maritime flow increasing the moisture content for
the area. Expect an increase in dew point temperatures to the
mid 70s. Few showers in the afternoon with low coverage expected
due to a capping inversion and ridging aloft. Clouds will
slightly offset daytime heating, but expect mid to upper 90`s
for high temperatures. Higher humidity for the end of the week
will raise peak heat index values above 105 with a max of 110.

A weak front will work into the Southeast over the weekend, but
will likely remain west of the forecast area, keeping moisture
in place. SW flow ahead of the front and convergence from a lee-
side trough should promote scattered diurnal convection for the
remainder of the long term. However widespread convection is
unlikely given the upper ridging. With increasing moisture and
warming 850mb temps, we will see highs mainly in the mid to
upper 90s this weekend and Heat Index values as high as 110.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence for VFR through the evening. A weak front is
well southeast of the area, near the SC Low Country and eastern
GA. Any showers should remain south of the Terminals this
afternoon as much drier air has spread into the area with high
pressure building south from VA. Winds will favor northeast to
east near 10 knots this afternoon and light east overnight.
Cumulus likely to remain southeast of the area and mainly clear
sky other than some high clouds through 06z. The guidance is
suggesting some stratus will develop late tonight in east flow
and spread toward the AGS/DNL terminals. There is a relatively low
probability at this time for MVFR/IFR ceilings at those
terminals. The guidance has trended less threatening for
restrictions. Any low clouds should mix out by 15z Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions expected through
midweek outside of some early morning stratus which may briefly
become MVFR. Moisture returns late in the week with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms possible into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Key messages(s):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
possibly may aid current dry conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CJR
LONG TERM...CJR/MRM
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...