Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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584 FXUS62 KCAE 291017 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 617 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. Afternoon and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend with noticeably higher moisture building into the region. A cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and humid again. Today and Tonight: Morning starts off with some patchy fog which will burn off by 14z. Weak surface boundary remains across the area again today. Aloft, upper ridge builds back into the area through the day. Although there will be plenty of moisture, with pwat values above 2 inches, along with moderate instability, the upper ridge may be strong enough as it builds in to limit afternoon rainfall to isolated coverage. Highs similar to yesterday, with readings mostly in the middle 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key messages: - Excessive heat headlines likely on Sunday. Not as hot on Monday with a front entering the region. A sweltering day is on tap for The Midlands and CSRA on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 106-111F range. A Heat Advisory is likely. An upper level trough passes well to the north of the region, however it does push a cold front into South Carolina and east central Georgia in the evening and overnight hours. Forecast model soundings show an inverted V at lower levels and DCAPE values are expected to be in the 1250-1500 J/KG range, therefore damage wind gusts will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also a concern with precipitable water values in excess of two inches. SPC has the region in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. The models differ on how far south the front progresses on Monday. The model consensus pushes it south of I-20 which allows somewhat cooler and drier air into the Northern Midlands. Areas of south of I- 20 should expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should be 8 to 10 degrees cooler area wide. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: - Brief break from excessive heat on Tuesday before the heat and humidity return later in the week. A brief respite from the summer heat and humidity continues on Tuesday with a frontal boundary along or south of the region. High pressure aloft rebuilds over the Southeast U.S. during the latter half of next week with temperatures once again well above normal with increasing precipitable water values. Convective activity should be mostly limited to near the sea breeze front and small scale atmospheric interactions. Below normal rainfall during the past month has led to dry vegetation which increases the risk of fire starts, especially with upcoming Independence Day celebrations. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Areas of Low Clouds and/or Patchy Fog Possible overnight and through daybreak. Areas that have been mostly clear across the central Midlands sites are now showing some ifr fog development on satellite and obs. CSRA is now under an area of low mvfr stratus, with higher visibilities. These conditions likely to last through 14z before ceilings and visibilities lift and begin to become more scattered and eventually vfr by late morning. There will continue to be a chance for isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours. With limited coverage at this time expected for any rainfall, will leave mention out of all tafs for now. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with restrictions each afternoon into early next week as additional moisture moves over the region. Early morning fog-stratus likely each as well. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$