436
FXUS62 KCAE 010534
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
134 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving through the region this evening
is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to
start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow
the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Line of strong thunderstorms exits the forecast area. Chance
  of lingering showers for the remainder of the evening.
- Areas of low clouds and/or patchy fog likely towards
  daybreak.

A line of strong thunderstorms continues to move through the
southern Midlands and Burke County, Georgia this evening. These
thunderstorms remain capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall as they exit our forecast area. Additional
showers and thunderstorms in the Upstate will move into our CWA
from the north and west but guidance suggests that they will
continue to weaken as they move through the region. Guidance
suggests the development of low clouds and/or patchy fog across
the FA towards daybreak, especially in locations that saw heavy
rainfall today. It`ll be muggy with temperatures falling into
the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A brief respite from the heat and humidity.

Monday and Monday night...Upper trough centered over the
northeast CONUS will shift off the coast by evening. The strong
upper ridge over the southern Plains will begin to build back
east. At the surface, the frontal boundary will be near the
southeast Midlands in the morning then shift slowly to the
south as dry air spreads south from North Carolina. Near the
front, precipitable water is expected to be at or above 2
inches. Precipitable water will be much lower across the
northern Midlands...in the 1.0-1.5 inch range by afternoon. CAM
models suggest scattered showers will develop in the moderately
unstable air mass near the front by mid morning and slowly shift
south and east during the afternoon. Focus for more widespread
convection should be in the coastal plain near the sea breeze
and frontal convergence by later in the afternoon. Area in
general cold advection so, max temperatures should be
significantly cooler than previous days...in the 85 to 90 degree
range with lingering cloudiness into into the afternoon and
cooler at night with lows into the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The latest GFS/ECMWF suggest the
front will move a little further to southeast with moisture
mainly confined to the coastal plain. Lowered the pops a bit
especially across the central and northern Midlands where based
on the grand ensemble guidance and deterministic models, the
precipitable water is likely to be less than 1.5 inches. Weak
easterly/north-easterly flow supports cooler temps, mid to upper
80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Heat and humidity return as high pressure aloft rebuilds.

Ensembles indicate the anomalously strong upper ridge...up to
about 2 standard deviations above normal...over the Midwest
will build east over the area during the mid to late week
period. This will result in well above normal temperatures,
NBM max temperature guidance is around 100 degrees each day into
next weekend. The probabilistic guidance shows 50% or higher
chance of max temperatures in excess of 100F both Friday and
Saturday with increasing moisture. Isolated diurnal convection
should develop primarily near the remnants of a frontal boundary
on Wednesday and then primarily near the sea breeze front
Independence Day through Saturday. The ridge appears to weaken
by next weekend as another front approaches the area, so
scattered showers/thunderstorms expected as moisture increases,
especially by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions are expected to develop over the next couple of
hours at all sites, lasting through mid-morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be confined to the Augusta and
Orangeburg terminals this afternoon and evening.

Cold front is slowly pushing towards the forecast area, with
earlier showers/thunderstorms either diminishing or shifting to
our south. Two fronts are expected to pass during this period:
an initial one in the next couple of hours that will offer a
wind shift and then a more substantial front later this morning
that should lower moisture. Stratus is developing behind this
initial front north of the TAF sites, with IFR restrictions
expected to build southward through 07z-08z. These should be
mainly ceiling restrictions but some patchy fog should build as
well especially given that many areas saw rain yesterday and
low-level winds are light. Expect clouds to hang around until
mid-morning before lifting. Expecting the secondary front to
slow and stall near the southern FA, with showers and
thunderstorms likely to impact AGS/DNL/OGB at some point or
another. Winds are expected to be easterly or northeasterly by
this afternoon between 5 and 15 knots. By tonight,
showers/storms should diminish in coverage with a potential
round of stratus on the other side of this forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional stratus and afternoon
shower-storms likely Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values and precipitation chances remains relatively low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...