839
FXUS65 KBYZ 051936
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
136 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight Through Sunday...

Thunderstorms affecting the region today will likely start to
move out of the area around 03Z tonight as the front moves off to
the east and the environment becomes more strongly capped. This
will bring in higher pressure and some cold air advection tonight
acting to lower temperatures a few degrees for Saturday. Saturday
will see another wave move through the region that will also bring
some weak cold air advection acting to keep temperatures in the
80s for Saturday and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will get
going in the late morning hours tomorrow. Instability will be
limited with generally <500J/kg of CAPE with shear in the 30-40kt
range. The lower levels of the atmosphere will be dry with
dewpoints in the 30s for many areas. There will also be a lack of
strong forcing helping to limit the severe storm risk. NCAR neural
network is not showing any chance for severe weather tomorrow,
although isolated small hail and strong wind gusts can`t be ruled
out. Sunday looks to be calmer with clear skies for most as upper
ridging to the west keeps sliding to the west putting us in rising
heights. Torgerson

Monday through Friday...

Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region from the
west through the week bringing dry conditions and warm to hot
temperatures. High temperatures gradually increase from the 80s on
Monday, towards the lower 90s for Tuesday. Upper 80s to middle 90s
are forecast for Wednesday, with 90s to lower 100s for Thursday
and Friday. Probabilities for high temperatures exceeding 100
degrees range from 40-60% along the river valleys of central and
eastern areas. STP
&&

.AVIATION...

A disturbance dropping through the region will bring isolated
(west) to scattered (central & east) showers & thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, moving NW to SE. Local/brief MVFR is
possible in the shower and thunderstorm activity. Otherwise,
conditions will improve towards VFR everywhere later this evening
and overnight. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances return
for Saturday afternoon and evening.

POTENTIAL TS TIMES AND PROBABILITY OF TS TODAY:
BIL:  21-03Z (20%)
LVM:  22-03Z (10%)
MLS:  21-05Z (35%)
SHR:  23-03Z (15%)

STP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/080 053/080 054/088 060/091 061/095 064/101 067/099
    14/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    11/U
LVM 049/080 047/079 049/087 054/089 055/094 059/099 061/097
    14/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 049/080 051/080 050/088 055/091 057/095 061/101 063/101
    33/T    31/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    10/G
MLS 053/078 055/079 055/086 058/089 061/093 064/099 066/100
    41/B    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 053/079 053/078 053/085 057/088 059/093 064/099 066/100
    41/B    22/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 050/076 052/078 051/084 055/085 057/089 060/095 062/096
    52/T    22/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 049/079 048/076 048/085 052/088 053/092 058/099 062/099
    23/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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