291
FXUS65 KBYZ 041955
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
155 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday Night...

Cyclonic flow over the region, along with moisture wrapping
around an upper low over the Dakotas back into the area was
bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
area this afternoon. With weak instability and shear over the
area, we`re not expecting strong storms, but gusty winds and small
hail are possible. Expect the shower and thunderstorm activity to
decrease into the evening hours, with most convection done in
time for Independence Day festivities this evening. Temperatures
will drop into the 40s and lower 50s tonight.

Northwest flow over the region on Friday and a weak shortwave
dropping in from the northwest will bring isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and evening
hours, greatest over north and eastern areas (20-40% chance). Much
of the same can be expected for Saturday with cyclonic flow aloft
and upslope flow near the surface bringing afternoon/evening
shower and thunderstorm chances to most of the area (20-50%). High
temperatures on Friday and Saturday will range from the 70s to the
lower 80s, below to near normal for this time of year. STP

Sunday through Thursday...

There is good agreement among the WPC Clusters that ridging over
the west coast will slowly move east throughout next workweek.
This will bring gradually warming temperatures culminating with
the highest temperatures of the year by late next week for most.
Sunday and Monday will see seasonal temperatures in the 80s for
most before transitioning into the 90s for the rest of the week.
Some locations will have to the potential to reach 100 degrees
with NBM giving a 10-20% chance Wednesday for locations in low
elevations along the Yellowstone river valley. Probabilities
increase for Wednesday expanding to most river valleys and topping
out around 60% along the Yellowstone. Low temperatures are
expected to remain in the 60s through next Thursday with NBM
keeping the chance of getting a low temperature above 70 below 10%
across the region. This will help to mitigate heat stress and
keeps the HeatRisk in the moderate category for next Wednesday.
The long term is expected to remain dry. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

There will be scattered (20-50%) showers and a few thunderstorms
across the region this evening that should come to and end as the
sun goes down. Breezy conditions gusting into the 20-25kt range
will also calm around 03Z. Friday will be similar with a 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/081 053/082 054/081 056/089 059/092 062/097 064/099
    22/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 045/079 048/081 047/080 051/088 054/091 056/095 059/097
    22/T    03/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 049/081 050/083 050/081 051/089 055/093 058/097 060/100
    22/T    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 054/078 053/079 055/080 055/086 059/091 062/094 064/097
    33/T    22/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 053/079 053/081 054/079 053/085 056/090 060/094 063/098
    22/T    22/T    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 051/075 050/076 052/078 051/082 055/087 058/091 059/093
    24/T    22/T    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 047/079 048/081 049/078 048/085 052/090 055/094 058/097
    22/T    22/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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