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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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350 FXUS61 KBUF 300814 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 414 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the region this morning...and this will usher in a notably less humid airmass that we can enjoy through the state of the new work week. While there will be some leftover showers and possible thunderstorms around today...the weather will be appreciably nicer than that from Saturday. High pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley today will then build across the region for Monday and Tuesday. This will guarantee near perfect weather to start the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A very moist and unstable environment that is still in place early this morning will support a few more showers and thunderstorms... then in the wake of a passing cold front during the initial daylight hours today...a drier more comfortable airmass will make its way into our region. The frontal passage will help to keep some showers in the forecast though through midday for many areas...especially east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...today will feature breezy conditions with an increasingly comfortable airmass as Tds will drop from the 70s into the upper 50s. A secondary cold front will push south through our region tonight. This will combine with a northerly upslope flow across a relatively warm Lake Ontario to generate a fair amount of cloud cover across our region...along with scattered nuisance showers east of Lake Ontario. The pain of the unsettled weather for much of the weekend will give way to absolutely gorgeous weather on Monday...as expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes in the morning will make its way across our region during the afternoon and evening. Max temperatures Monday will be within a few degrees of 70 with low humidity and wall to wall sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sprawling Canadian high pressure will build directly across our region Monday night before slowly making its way to the mid-Atlantic coastline on Tuesday...while low-amplitude upper level ridging builds in aloft. This will provide us with continued fair dry weather for this 24-hour period...with mainly clear skies Monday night giving way to some increase in some high clouds Tuesday. With respect to temperatures...ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow Monday night`s lows to range from the mid- upper 40s across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere...then a developing southerly return flow around the backside of the surface high will allow highs to climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Meanwhile humidity levels will remain comfortable...with surface dewpoints only inching up into the mid to upper 50s by later Tuesday. Tuesday night the surface ridge will slip a little further offshore...while the next mid/upper level trough and surface low pivots across Manitoba and Ontario Provinces. With our region firmly embedded within the deepening/strengthening southerly flow in between these two systems...it will be a much warmer night than the preceding two...with readings generally ranging through the 60s. Meanwhile humidity levels will remain tolerable...as surface Td`s will linger in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned trough and surface low will continue to make their way to northeastern Quebec and Labrador...and in the process will ease a weak trailing cool front across our area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Out ahead of this boundary heat will build on Wednesday...with 850 mb temps surging into the mid to upper teens...thereby supporting highs climbing back to the 85-90 range in many areas. Humidity levels will also be on the increase...with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid-upper 60s and lending an increasingly muggy feel to the afternoon. As the cool front impinges upon this sultry airmass later Wednesday afternoon and evening...it will bring about an increasing likelihood for convection...with this especially the case during the late afternoon and evening hours. With continued good model agreement on this scenario have bumped PoPs up a little more from continuity...with this round of showers and storms still appearing likely to pose a problem for any fireworks displays scheduled for Wednesday evening. Convection should then tend to diminish in coverage from northwest to southeast later Wednesday night and Thursday as the passing cool front slips off to our south and ushers in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass...though still cannot completely rule out some spottier showers and storms lingering into Thursday afternoon near the NY/PA border. Otherwise slightly cooler highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected for Independence Day...though humidity levels will likely remain elevated. Thursday night into Friday the weak cool front will stall out just to our south as a convectively-enhanced shortwave ripples eastward along this boundary...with the medium range guidance packages continuing to exhibit some differences on its strength...track...and timing...factors that will heavily influence the extent to which any associated pcpn will spread back across our region during this 24- hour period. Given the resultant uncertainty...will continue to cover the passage of this feature with a mix of slight chance to chance PoPs...with the highest values located along the NY/PA border. After that the medium range guidance is in loose agreement on another mid-level shortwave trough and surface low/weak cold front crossing our region in the Friday night-Saturday period...albeit with the usual differences in its timing...strength...and track common at this distant vantage point. With this in mind have continued to broadbrush lower-end chances for showers and storms for the end of this period. As for temperatures for the end of the week...these look to be on the warm side with daily highs in the lower-mid 80s and nightly lows in the 60s...while humidity levels should remain elevated with surface dewpoints remaining in the 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cigs of 2500 to 3500 feet will be found across much of the region through the initial daylight hours. The risk for showers and thunderstorms will persist during this time frame. As we advance into the midday and afternoon...VFR conditions will be found across the bulk of the region. The exception will be east of Lake Ontario where some MVFR cigs could accompany leftover showers. Cigs in many areas will drop to MVFR levels tonight...as a secondary cold front will press through the region. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier. && .MARINE... A cold front will push across the Lower Great Lakes this morning. This will lead to freshening winds that will veer to the west and has led to a fresh round of small craft advisories for Lake Ontario. The fresh to strong westerlies will persist into tonight before approaching high pressure encourages winds and waves to subside late tonight and Monday. Nearly ideal conditons for recreational boating can then be expected for Monday and Tuesday...as high pressure will cross the region. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ002. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>006. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH