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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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479 FXUS61 KBUF 300631 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 231 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the region this morning...and this will usher in a notably less humid airmass that we can enjoy through the state of the new work week. While there will be some leftover showers and possible thunderstorms around today...the weather will be appreciably nicer than that from Saturday. High pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley today will then build across the region for Monday and Tuesday. This will guarantee near perfect weather to start the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A very moist and unstable environment that is still in place early this morning will support a few more showers and thunderstorms... then in the wake of a passing cold front during the initial daylight hours today...a drier more comfortable airmass will make its way into our region. The frontal passage will help to keep some showers in the forecast though through midday for many areas...especially east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...the upcoming day will feature breezy conditions with an increasingly comfortable airmass as Tds will drop from the 70s into the upper 50s. A secondary cold front will push south through our region Sunday night. This will combine with a northerly upslope flow across a relatively warm Lake Ontario to generate a fair amount of cloud cover across our region...along with scattered nuisance showers east of Lake Ontario. The pain of the unsettled weather for much of the weekend will give way to absolutely gorgeous weather on Monday...as expansive high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes in the morning will make its way across our region during the afternoon and evening. Max temperatures Monday will be within a few degrees of 70 with low humidity and wall to wall sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Excellent weather will then be in place as we move into the first day of July as a broad area of surface will be directly overhead by Monday night before shifting off the New Jersey coast by Tuesday evening. Monday night will again be on the cool side owed to the clearer skies, with lows ranging from the upper 40s across the interior hilltops to mid 50s near the lakeshores. Mid/high clouds will increase through the day Tuesday out ahead of a warm front lifting through the Ohio Valley. Temps at the sfc and aloft will continue to warm on the western periphery of the surface high Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temps topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows ranging in the 60s respectively. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmer, unsettled weather returns to the forecast as we move later into the week. This comes as weak mid-level ridging shifts east of the Great lakes Wednesday as is replaced with nearly zonal flow aloft extending back toward the lower Midwest. Meanwhile, a weakening mid-level trough will trudge east across James Bay from northern Ontario to Quebec, causing several shortwave disturbances to ripple through the overhead zonal flow, bringing on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. The first of these opportunities for wet weather will arrive Wednesday afternoon. A large surface low attendant to the trough near James Bay will sag its elongated cold front southeastward across Ontario Province and towards the eastern Great Lakes. Diurnal convection will be possible during peak heating hours as the forecast area sits within the system`s warm sector. A more widespread round of showers and possibly a few additional thunderstorms is expected Wednesday night as the front moves through then stalls just south of the region, before the area dries out late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast uncertainty increases as we move further into Thursday and towards the weekend. Long range guidance is in general agreement on the stalled frontal boundary remaining to our south through Independence Day, with an area of subsidence drying extending across the forecast area from the upper Great Lakes. This being said, the GFS is much further north with the placement of the boundary than the ECMWF/CMCNH, both of which hint at some possible light diurnal shower activity developing. This is reflected in the forecast as low- end chances for showers (15-20%) in most areas Thursday afternoon and evening, with slightly better chances (~30%) across the Southern Tier in closer proximity to the boundary, where some thunderstorms may be possible as well. Thereafter, a compact shortwave racing across the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thursday night will take aim at the forecast area by Friday morning, followed by a larger surface low which will move across the Great Lakes Saturday. As is typical at this range, uncertainty is high in strength, timing, and track of these systems which will also likely be influenced by how they interact with the stalled boundary south of the area. Therefore have stuck close to deterministic NBMs Chc PoPs Friday through Saturday until details come into better focus. For temperatures this period...Summer`s warmth will return to the forecast area out ahead of the cold front Wednesday, with highs well into the 80s likely in most areas. Temperatures cool a few degrees with a bit less humidity by Thursday. Temperatures Friday will be similar, likely cooling a bit more to the upper 70s/low 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cigs of 2500 to 3500 feet will be found across much of the region through the initial daylight hours. The risk for showers and thunderstorms will persist during this time frame. As we advance into the midday and afternoon...VFR conditions will be found across the bulk of the region. The exception will be east of Lake Ontario where some MVFR cigs could accompany leftover showers. Cigs in many areas will drop to MVFR levels Sunday night...as a secondary cold front will press through the region. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier. && .MARINE... A cold front will approach the region tonight...expect fresh to strong westerlies in the wake of a front on Sunday. This will likely lead to a fresh round of headlines for at least the eastern half of Lake Ontario...while choppy conditions will be found elsewhere. Looking further ahead...high pressure drifting across the region Monday and Tuesday will offer fine conditions for recreational boating with generally light winds and negligible waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...RSH MARINE...AR/Apffel/RSH