182
FXUS61 KBUF 021600
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1200 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off into New England today while maintaining
fair dry weather. A deepening southerly flow between the exiting
high pressure and an approaching cold front will then allow mid
summer heat and humidity to return on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms...many with drenching downpours will then make their
way into our region later Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair dry weather again today with surface high pressure over NY
State. There will be some high clouds due to a decaying upstream MCS
this afternoon. Highs will be found in the mid/upper 70s across the
higher terrain to low 80s elsewhere.

A warm front will enter the area tonight and may produce a sprinkle
or isolated shower. Although...it is very likely that we will only
see an increase in mid to high clouds as was mentioned. Very low
PoPs (< 20%) considering Bufkit profiles do show a very prominent dry
layer between 5K and 10k feet.

Otherwise...not quite as cool with lows generally in the 60s. A few
reading may dip into the 50s...this would be for locales well inland
east of Lake Ontario (Lewis Co).

Wednesday is then GUARANTEED to be very warm and moderately humid...
as a deepening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
will prompt Tds to return to the mid and upper 60s...while PWAT
values will surge to around 2 inches. This may sound like a broken
record from last week...as this increasingly sub tropical
environment will become ripe for afternoon convection. Forcing
the increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms...some with
drenching downpours and gusty winds...will be a pair of frontal
boundaries.

As is most often the case during the summer...the approaching cold
front will be preceded by a pre-frontal sfc trough. This will
help to initiate some thunderstorms over the Southern Tier and
western Finger Lakes during the afternoon...then more widespread
convection can be expected late in the day into the evening
with the passage of the actual cold front. Forecast bulk shear
of 40kts or so will increase the risk for organized convection
that could produce gusty winds...particularly over southern
areas. SPC highlights the most favored area for severe weather
to be well to our southwest...in the vcnty of the Ohio valley.

Temperatures on Wednesday will top out between 85 and 90...with the
higher end of that range expected for the lake plains where heat
index values will approach the mid 90s.

Wednesday night...showers and storms will dwindle as the cold front
settles south of the Lower Lakes overnight. Otherwise...not overly
cool behind this front with lows generally found in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will gradually drop across our region Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, with showers and thunderstorms through the
evening, then diminishing overnight as daytime instability
decreases. Greater instability does not arrive until the evening
hours maintaining thunderstorm chances and coverage area, of which
some could still be producing heavy downpours within a humid
atmosphere, and PWATs around 1.5 to 1.75 inches. The surface front
parallel to the convergent flow aloft could allow for training
cells, especially across WNY.

This front and deeper moisture drops to near the state line
Thursday. A few showers or thunderstorms near the state line,
otherwise much of the region will remain dry through the evening
hours. Winds Thursday night will be light, generally from the
northwest to west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level shortwave trough over the Midwest Friday and surface
low, will track across the Great Lakes and to southern Quebec
through Saturday night. A frontal boundary to our south will lift
back northward as a warm front, with showers and thunderstorms
forming within an increasing humid atmosphere ahead of the front.
Greatest coverage to convection will be Friday night and Saturday,
with the passing of the warm front, low level convergence on the
nose of a 35 to 40 knot LLJ that will reside under divergent flow
aloft, and broad scale lift ahead of the shortwave. Strongest storms
will likely be across eastern areas Saturday where lingering MUCAPE
values of 1000 J/KG and 0-6 km bulk shear values near 50 kts ahead
of a cold front could boost thunderstorms.

High pressure will settle across our region from the Ohio Valley
Sunday and Sunday night. From this direction, though humidity will
lower, it will not be that crisp autumn like feel to the air.
Falling heights, and southerly return flow Monday will give
potential for more showers and thunderstorms moving back into our
region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will produce VFR through the entire area today.

Tonight...a warm front will work through the area overnight. It
might bring with it a sprinkle or shower but VFR is expected to be
maintain.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR, then MVFR with showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm
across the western Southern Tier.
Friday and Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will bring light winds and minimal wave action thorugh
this evening.

High pressure exits tonight and a warm front will work across the
lakes overnight. Winds will pickup late out of the south pushing
higher wave action off shore as we move into Wednesday.

A cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Winds will veer to
the southwest ahead of the cold front.  While fair weather will
remain in place through at least midday...there will be an
increasing risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

In the wake of the cold front...fair weather will return to the
region later Wednesday night with subsiding southwest breezes.

Looking ahead to the Fourth of July...gentle to moderate winds will
be in place throughout the region. These winds will be from the
southwest on Lake Erie and primarily from the west on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/RSH