174
FXUS61 KBTV 020533
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through early this
week, keeping the weather pleasant and dry through at least
early Wednesday. A frontal boundary will bring increasing
chances for showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at
this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 128 AM EDT Tuesday...There remains no changes to the
forecast, for it is in excellent shape.

Previous discussion... Very pleasant weather on tap for the
North Country through the near term. High pressure is building
into the region this afternoon, and we`re already starting to
see a decrease in the scattered cloud cover over the higher
terrain. This downward trend will continue this evening, and
clear skies will dominate overnight. Dewpoints are already in
the 40s in spots, and with near calm conditions, it will
definitely be a comfortable sleeping night with lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Some patchy fog will be possible in the usual
favored areas, but it should be fairly localized.

Beautiful weather continues on Tuesday. We`ll start out sunny,
with some increasing clouds possible in the afternoon with some
fair weather cumulus popping up over the higher terrain. Highs
will be warmer than today, very seasonable in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Clouds will increase Tuesday night as a warm front
lifts toward the region. No precipitation is expected, however.
Lows will remain on the comfortable side, mainly in the 50s to
around 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure shifts to the
east on Wednesday, causing southerly flow to develop across the
region. This will send temperatures a few degrees higher than
the previous days, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. A
dying cold front will pass through the region overnight and
bring a few showers. The most likely timing is that it reaches
northern New York in the evening and Vermont after midnight.
While humidity will be trying to build in before its passage,
the front will move through the region quick enough before it
can become fully established. Dew points in the St. Lawrence
Valley look to reach the mid to upper 60s but they should not be
able to make it above the low 60s anywhere else. This looks to
keep any of the instability limited to the St. Lawrence Valley
and therefore limit any chance of thunderstorms to there. Even
then, the soundings and synoptic forcing are unimpressive so any
thunderstorms would be local. The front currently looks to come
across as a broken line of showers in New York and northern
Vermont before falling apart as it reaches southern Vermont. A
southerly low- level jet will build into the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening ahead of the front. This will increase
wind speeds, particularly in the Champlain Valley where the flow
will be channeled. Gusts up to 25KTs are possible there. Winds
stay up a bit overnight, keeping temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 322 PM EDT Monday...The boundary will remain over the
North Country for the Fourth of July, but a lack of sources of
lift will keep the day mostly dry. Temperatures will rise well
into the 80s and dew points will rise well into the 60s. With
the boundary in place, there could be an isolated shower, but
overall, the day looks dry. The low-level jet is to the east at
this point so winds will be relatively light during the day,
dropping close to calm overnight. Dry weather should prevail
through Friday before another storm system arrives for the
weekend. The low will push the front back to the north as a warm
front and there will be a push of more humid air into the
region. There will be some on and off rain showers but
significant rainfall looks unlikely. The uncertainty looks to be
whether the the cold front on the backside can reach our area
or not. Right now, ensemble guidance favors it staying to the
west and causing the start of next week to be on the hotter and
humid side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...With the exception of brief MVFR/IFR
visibility at KSLK in radiation fog about 08z to 11z, VFR will
prevail through the TAF period. Think the better chance for fog
will be at KSLK due to receiving more rain over the last two
days than KMPV. Fair weather cumulus will redevelop after 14z
tomorrow at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be light or terrain
driven. After 14z, winds will turn upslope at KRUT/KMPV/KSLK
with lake breezes at KBTV and KPBG.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG
WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles