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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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380 FXUS61 KBTV 020736 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through early this week, keeping the weather pleasant and dry through at least early Wednesday. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Fair weather will continue from today into Wednesday with ridge of surface high pressure continuing to control our weather across the north country. The day will begin sunny, and increasing afternoon cumulus clouds are anticipated, especially over the higher terrain. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm front lifts north into our region overnight, and we`ll mainly just see an increase in clouds with this feature, as well as mild overnight temperatures. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Ridge of surface high pressure will begin to slide eastward on Wednesday, making way for next approaching system. Southerly flow will develop across our region, and will become brisk. High temperatures on Wednesday will again be very warm, ranging through the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...The main features of interest for the work week continue to be a prefrontal trough passage Wednesday night and weak cold front Thursday afternoon/evening. The majority of precipitation is expected to be with the pre- frontal trough, but with the parent surface low and upper level support forecast to track well north of the region across James Bay, and timing of the boundary`s passage being at night, there will be little instability to work with so the threat for strong thunderstorms is low. Some elevated instability combined with PWATs around 1.5" do support the possibility of moderate rain though, especially across northern New York where the boundary looks more organized compared to Vermont. By Thursday morning the feature should be shifting east of the region with mainly dry conditions expected for the holiday, but the actual cold front may produce a few isolated showers in the late afternoon and evening. After a few days of dry and comfortable conditions to start the week, midweek will see a return of a warmer and more humid airmass with overnight lows ranging through the 60s, highs in the mid/upper 80s, and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure returns briefly for Friday with seasonal highs in the 80s and humidity slightly elevated with dewpoints around 60, but come Saturday deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the potential for a closed mid/upper level system to track through the Great Lakes and push a warm front through the North Country and Vermont late Friday night into Saturday, and cold front Saturday afternoon/night. Deep southwesterly flow ushers in another humid airmass with PWATs rising to near 2", but ensemble probabilities of greater than 2" is quite low with the axis of deepest moisture remaining south of the region across the mid- Atlantic states. Regardless, enough moisture could be present to support a threat for heavy rain within any thunderstorms that develop as current timing of the cold front and forecast soundings support the idea of some stronger storms with SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg and 50kts of 0-6km shear depicted on the 00Z GFS. It`s certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...With the exception of brief MVFR/IFR visibility at KSLK in radiation fog about 08z to 11z, VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Think the better chance for fog will be at KSLK due to receiving more rain over the last two days than KMPV. Fair weather cumulus will redevelop after 14z tomorrow at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be light or terrain driven. After 14z, winds will turn upslope at KRUT/KMPV/KSLK with lake breezes at KBTV and KPBG. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles