525
FXUS61 KBTV 021405
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through early this
week, keeping the weather pleasant and dry through at least
early Wednesday. A frontal boundary will bring increasing
chances for showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at
this time, the Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1002 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes were needed with this
update. Fog has dissipated this morning, and now we await the
arrival of some mid/high clouds streaming south through Quebec.
There`s some question how much of this will be able to spread
over our area given the dry airmass in place, but think mostly
to partly sunny is still reasonable. Some fair weather cumulus
could develop over the higher terrain as well. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s by this afternoon, but
dewpoints will remain comfortable. The forecast has this all
covered and remains in good shape.

Previous discussion...Fair weather will continue from
today into Wednesday with ridge of surface high pressure
continuing to control our weather across the north country. The
day will begin sunny, and increasing afternoon cumulus clouds
are anticipated, especially over the higher terrain. Maximum
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
front lifts north into our region overnight, and we`ll mainly
just see an increase in clouds with this feature, as well as
mild overnight temperatures. Minimum temperatures will range
from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Ridge of surface high pressure
will begin to slide eastward on Wednesday, making way for next
approaching system. Southerly flow will develop across our
region, and will become brisk. High temperatures on Wednesday
will again be very warm, ranging through the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...The main features of interest for
the work week continue to be a prefrontal trough passage
Wednesday night and weak cold front Thursday afternoon/evening.
The majority of precipitation is expected to be with the pre-
frontal trough, but with the parent surface low and upper level
support forecast to track well north of the region across James
Bay, and timing of the boundary`s passage being at night, there
will be little instability to work with so the threat for strong
thunderstorms is low. Some elevated instability combined with
PWATs around 1.5" do support the possibility of moderate rain
though, especially across northern New York where the boundary
looks more organized compared to Vermont. By Thursday morning
the feature should be shifting east of the region with mainly
dry conditions expected for the holiday, but the actual cold
front may produce a few isolated showers in the late afternoon
and evening. After a few days of dry and comfortable conditions
to start the week, midweek will see a return of a warmer and
more humid airmass with overnight lows ranging through the 60s,
highs in the mid/upper 80s, and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure returns
briefly for Friday with seasonal highs in the 80s and humidity
slightly elevated with dewpoints around 60, but come Saturday
deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential for a closed mid/upper level system to track through
the Great Lakes and push a warm front through the North Country
and Vermont late Friday night into Saturday, and cold front
Saturday afternoon/night. Deep southwesterly flow ushers in
another humid airmass with PWATs rising to near 2", but ensemble
probabilities of greater than 2" is quite low with the axis of
deepest moisture remaining south of the region across the mid-
Atlantic states. Regardless, enough moisture could be present to
support a threat for heavy rain within any thunderstorms that
develop as current timing of the cold front and forecast
soundings support the idea of some stronger storms with SBCAPE
over 1000 J/kg and 50kts of 0-6km shear depicted on the 00Z GFS.
It`s certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...With the exception of brief MVFR/IFR
visibility at KSLK in radiation fog about 08z to 11z, VFR will
prevail through the TAF period. Think the better chance for fog
will be at KSLK due to receiving more rain over the last two
days than KMPV. Fair weather cumulus will redevelop after 14z
tomorrow at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be light or terrain
driven. After 14z, winds will turn upslope at KRUT/KMPV/KSLK
with lake breezes at KBTV and KPBG.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG
WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles