847
FXUS61 KBTV 030700
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will shift southeast today, which along
with a cold front will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather will move in for July
4th, with pleasant conditions expected. A warming trend starts
on Saturday, with highs back into the 90s by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms are
expected across our area today as an upper level trough crosses
the region, as well as a surface cold front dropping south
across our area. The frontal passage will occur early in the
day, and winds will be westerly, then northwesterly behind the
front. SPC has expanded their Day 1 slight risk to include more
of our area. Pretty efficient daytime heating before the frontal
passage will lead to maximum temperatures ranging from the
lower 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys, but
only ranging through the 70s in northern New York where the
frontal passage occurs earlier in the day. Deep layer shear is
favorable as winds will be fairly weak at the surface out of the
west to northwest, and an upper level jet passes overhead
within base of upper level trough. Damaging winds will be the
main threat with any organized thunderstorms that develop, but
some hail will also be possible given the shear profiles. Timing
of the front being early in the day could limit severe
potential. Moisture is somewhat limited with mainly westerly
flow in place across the region. HRRR and NAM3 both show 2 areas
of convection associated with multiple surface troughs crossing
the area, first this morning and then a second area of showers
behind the front this afternoon, the HRRR is the more robust
solution out of the two. Even if storms do not become
strong/severe, they will still be capable of producing deadly
lightning. Timing for shower and thunderstorm activity has been
bumped earlier, mainly 1 pm to 7 pm. Some showers may linger
beyond 7 pm. If you have outdoor plans, please stay weather
aware and follow the latest forecast updates. When there are
peaks of sun today, expect hazy conditions as some Canadian
wildfire smoke will be in the upper levels. Quieter and cooler
weather is then expected for both tonight and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...A pleasant stretch of weather is
expected for the first half of the weekend. High pressure will
continue to build into the region over the weekend, bringing dry
weather and a warming temperature trend. High temperatures
Saturday afternoon look to be seasonably warm, climbing into the
low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. These temperatures
and partly sunny skies will make for a rather enjoyable
Saturday. Southerly flow will begin to usher in more humid air,
with mild overnight lows only dropping into the 60s to near 70
for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure and ridging
aloft will continue to bring a period dry weather and increasing
heat for Sunday. Southerly flow will continue to advect a more
humid airmass into the region. High temperatures Sunday
afternoon look to climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the
region, feeling quite uncomfortable with the increased moisture
and dewpoints in the 60s. The heat will likely linger into
Monday, especially across southern portions of the forecast area
as a slow moving cold front approaches from the north. There is
still plenty of uncertainty as to how quickly this feature will
progress across the region, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially Monday night. This feature will help
provide relief from the heat, with more seasonable conditions
expected heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours outside of scattered showers and
thunderstorms lowering visibilities tomorrow. We continue to
monitor the potential for fog, however, confidence is low that
any fog will reach the TAF sites and restrict visibilities.
Overall west to southwesterly flow reigns this afternoon 3-12
knots with some sites taking on a more light and variable wind.
Mainly light terrain driven wind flow is expected overnight
tonight. Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight and
tomorrow, though ceilings should stay generally 4500 feet above
ground level or higher. Rain shower chances increase 12Z-18Z
with highest confidence of a shower or even a thunderstorm 18Z
onward. Depending on where these showers or thunderstorms occur,
visibilities could be reduced to lower than forecast. Winds are
expected to turn more northwesterly tomorrow 5-10 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots possible, potentially even higher in any
thunderstorms.


Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles