262
FXUS61 KBTV 022323
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight and much of Wednesday as high
pressure gradually crosses the region. A frontal boundary will bring
increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at this time, the Fourth of July
is expected to be mostly dry. Temperatures will remain seasonable
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 712 PM EDT Tuesday...Main adjustments were to slow the
cooling curve marginally and lower RH this evening. Once the sun
sets, temperatures will quickly drop, but not until then given
very dry surface conditions. Otherwise, a pleasantly cool night
is ahead, but likely a degree or three warmer than last night.

Previous Discussion...Another fantastic summer day out there
this afternoon with ample sunshine, light winds, and
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints remain
fairly low as well, keeping humidity quite comfortable.

This pleasant weather will continue overnight, though mid/high
clouds will gradually increase as a warm front approaches the
region. Moisture will start to increase late, but not enough to make
for a muggy night. Lows will range from around 50F to around 60F.

The warm front will lift across the region Wednesday morning,
ushering in a warmer and muggier airmass. Still, an abundance of dry
air will remain at low levels, so expect this front will pass
through with little fanfare beyond a mid cloud deck. Winds will
become breezy out of the south/southwest, especially in the
Champlain Valley due to channeling and along the northern slopes of
the Adirondacks due to downsloping. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be
possible in these locations through the daylight hours, with 20 to
25 mph elsewhere. Wind gusts will subside around sunset as we lose
daytime heating, though sustained winds will remain 10-15 mph into
the evening, especially in those areas mentioned above. Highs will
be similar to today with most locations warming into the 80s.

For Wednesday evening and overnight, the focus will be a frontal
boundary/surface trough which will cross from west to east. Moisture
will pool along this feature, with PWATs approaching 2 inches. The
associated showers and thunderstorms will likewise move eastward,
entering the St Lawrence Valley roughly between 7 and 9 pm. The
boundary will wash out as it moves eastward, and that combined with
loss of daytime heating will allow the showers and thunderstorms to
wane through the evening and overnight hours. Still, expect
precipitation to make it into the Champlain Valley around 11 pm,
then spreading across VT after midnight. The lack of strong forcing
and instability will limit any severe threat, though brief heavy
downpours will be possible given the very high PWATs. Lows will be
in the 60s to near 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday morning, most of the
precipitation associated with the prefrontal trough will come to an
end. Mostly dry weather can be expected for Independence Day,
although a spot shower or two will be possible as the frontal
boundary passes across the region. Daytime high temperatures will
climb into the 80s, and feel quite humid with dewpoints in the 60s.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...Seasonable weather can be expected for
Friday as a brief period of ridging moves overhead before an upper-
level shortwave moves into the Great Lakes late Friday into early
Saturday morning, bringing more chances for precipitation.
Southwesterly flow will usher in a moisture rich airmass, with PWAT
values nearing 2 inches, although the greatest moisture looks to
stay to our south across the mid- Atlantic into southern New England.
Model soundings support the idea of some stronger thunderstorms
possible, with CAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in
excess of 40 knots, although this will depend on the timing of the
cold frontal passage and if the best instability coincides with the
greatest forcing. With the abundant moisture, there is a threat for
any heavy rainfall within any stronger storms that develop, which
will have to be monitored over the next few days. Conditions look to
trend drier toward the beginning of next week. Temperatures look to
be seasonably warm towards the weekend, with high temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s, with dewpoints largely in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Pervasive VFR continues with high clouds
edging in west to east this evening. Main change was to
increase wind speeds after 14Z Wednesday with ample mixing
expected and channeled southerly flow for the Champlain and St
Lawrence Valleys. Gusts 20-25kts will likely be common for
BTV/PBG/MSS. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through the
period until 21Z for MSS when the first showers will be moving
east out of Canada. Only other concern will be a period of LLWS
just outside the TAF period moving in with a lljet.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings