762
FXUS61 KBTV 302337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will wane through the late afternoon and evening
hours, though scattered showers will linger into the overnight.
Quieter weather is expected for the upcoming week with seasonable
warmth and mostly rain-free conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 728 PM EDT Sunday...The last piece of this piecemeal
frontal passage is shifting southeast across northern New York
and is just impinging on Grand Isle now. Occasionally,
reflectivity increases up to 60 dBZ, but not up to -10 C,
indicating pure heavy downpours. Edwards, NY picked up a quick
half inch out of the activity. They`ve begun to weaken now that
we`re past peak heating and none have been producing lighting,
though, and the trend should be for this strip of showers to
continue a slow decline. Only minor tweaks were needed to the
forecast. Have a great night!

Ridging will begin to build over the area on Monday, leading to
clearing skies, especially by the afternoon. Temperatures will
be much cooler than today, mainly in the 70s. The dry and cool
conditions will continue Monday night, with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure will be directly overhead on
Tuesday, bringing dry and sunny weather. Winds will be very light as
well. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Light winds will
continue into Tuesday night and it should allow for decent
radiational cooling. However, high clouds will be beginning to
stream in from the west. Lows should drop into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...After a dry day on Wednesday, a weakening
cold front passes into the region Wednesday night and brings some
showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. The most likely
solution is that it passes through northern New York in the evening
and through Vermont around and after midnight. However, there is
still decent ensemble spread so put a lot of chance PoPs on either
side for now until confidence grows. While there is a low chance of
thunderstorms, there is no severe risk. The showers have trended to
look a little more scattered compared to yesterday. While the front
will not bring in a dry airmass behind it, it will shunt the ridge
back to the south before it can become entrenched over the area send
the temperatures and humidity to high levels. The formal front
generally dissipates but there will still be a bit of a boundary in
place on Thursday. There is the possibility that a few showers fire
along this but anything would be light and scattered. Overall, the
shower threat for the Fourth of July is decreasing and thunderstorms
are not expected regardless. The boundary looks to push to the south
for Friday and it should be a completely dry day. A area of low
pressure moves into the region for the weekend and brings more
chances of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Conditions are mainly VFR right now.
There`s a strip of showers about to reach KSLK and KPBG that
cold briefly reduce visibilities to about 3 to 5 SM for 30
minutes to an hour. They could reach KBTV as well, but the trend
will be for showers to break apart. Post-frontal stratus will
build across northern New York, especially. This will result in
some MVFR ceilings at KSLK, KRUT, and possibly KMPV, mainly
between 04z and 12z. KSLK may come close to 800-1000 ft ceilings
between 07z and 11z, and is not currently shown in the TAF.
Otherwise, after 12z, anticipate gradually clearing skies. Winds
will continue to shift towards the northwest or west at 5 to 10
knots and decline towards about 5 knots after 04z. Beyond 14z,
winds pick up again to 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 16 to
18 knots that subside after 22z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes