031
FXUS61 KBTV 010511
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
111 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will wane through the late afternoon and evening
hours, though scattered showers will linger into the overnight.
Quieter weather is expected for the upcoming week with seasonable
warmth and mostly rain-free conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 107 AM EDT Monday...Previous forecast on track as front
has cleared and noew the support support is momving through with
clouds and a sprinkle here and there.

Previous discussion...We`re still watching the last piece
of this front slowly drag itself through the region.
Precipitation intensity continues to taper off with the areal
coverage slowly but surely shrinking. Things are starting to
cool off nicely. Spying a few upper 50s to lower 60s just north
of the international border that will make their way across soon.
Previous discussion below.

Ridging will begin to build over the area on Monday, leading to
clearing skies, especially by the afternoon. Temperatures will
be much cooler than today, mainly in the 70s. The dry and cool
conditions will continue Monday night, with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure will be directly overhead on
Tuesday, bringing dry and sunny weather. Winds will be very light as
well. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Light winds will
continue into Tuesday night and it should allow for decent
radiational cooling. However, high clouds will be beginning to
stream in from the west. Lows should drop into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Sunday...After a dry day on Wednesday, a weakening
cold front passes into the region Wednesday night and brings some
showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. The most likely
solution is that it passes through northern New York in the evening
and through Vermont around and after midnight. However, there is
still decent ensemble spread so put a lot of chance PoPs on either
side for now until confidence grows. While there is a low chance of
thunderstorms, there is no severe risk. The showers have trended to
look a little more scattered compared to yesterday. While the front
will not bring in a dry airmass behind it, it will shunt the ridge
back to the south before it can become entrenched over the area send
the temperatures and humidity to high levels. The formal front
generally dissipates but there will still be a bit of a boundary in
place on Thursday. There is the possibility that a few showers fire
along this but anything would be light and scattered. Overall, the
shower threat for the Fourth of July is decreasing and thunderstorms
are not expected regardless. The boundary looks to push to the south
for Friday and it should be a completely dry day. A area of low
pressure moves into the region for the weekend and brings more
chances of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Post-frontal stratus is across NY and most
of VT. This will result in some MVFR ceilings at KSLK, KRUT,
and possibly KMPV, mainly through 12z. KSLK may come close to
800-1000 ft ceilings between 07z and 11z, and is not currently
shown in the TAF. Otherwise, after 12z, anticipate gradually
clearing skies. NW Winds 5 to 8 knots and pick up aft 14z to 5
to 10 knots with a few gusts to 16 to 18 knots that subside
after 22z Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Haynes/SLW
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...SLW