036
FXUS61 KBTV 020223
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through early this week,
keeping the weather pleasant and dry through at least early
Wednesday. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for
showers late Wednesday and Wednesday night but, at this time, the
Fourth of July is expected to be mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Monday...There remains no changes to the
forecast, for it is in excellent shape.

Previous discussion...
Very pleasant weather on tap for the North Country through the
near term. High pressure is building into the region this
afternoon, and we`re already starting to see a decrease in the
scattered cloud cover over the higher terrain. This downward
trend will continue this evening, and clear skies will dominate
overnight. Dewpoints are already in the 40s in spots, and with
near calm conditions, it will definitely be a comfortable
sleeping night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Some patchy
fog will be possible in the usual favored areas, but it should
be fairly localized.

Beautiful weather continues on Tuesday. We`ll start out sunny, with
some increasing clouds possible in the afternoon with some fair
weather cumulus popping up over the higher terrain. Highs will be
warmer than today, very seasonable in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Clouds will increase Tuesday night as a warm front lifts toward the
region. No precipitation is expected, however. Lows will remain on
the comfortable side, mainly in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure shifts to the east on
Wednesday, causing southerly flow to develop across the region. This
will send temperatures a few degrees higher than the previous days,
with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. A dying cold front will pass
through the region overnight and bring a few showers. The most
likely timing is that it reaches northern New York in the evening
and Vermont after midnight. While humidity will be trying to build
in before its passage, the front will move through the region quick
enough before it can become fully established. Dew points in the St.
Lawrence Valley look to reach the mid to upper 60s but they should
not be able to make it above the low 60s anywhere else. This looks
to keep any of the instability limited to the St. Lawrence Valley
and therefore limit any chance of thunderstorms to there. Even then,
the soundings and synoptic forcing are unimpressive so any
thunderstorms would be local. The front currently looks to come
across as a broken line of showers in New York and northern Vermont
before falling apart as it reaches southern Vermont. A southerly low-
level jet will build into the region Wednesday afternoon and evening
ahead of the front. This will increase wind speeds, particularly in
the Champlain Valley where the flow will be channeled. Gusts up to
25KTs are possible there. Winds stay up a bit overnight, keeping
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 322 PM EDT Monday...The boundary will remain over the North
Country for the Fourth of July, but a lack of sources of lift will
keep the day mostly dry. Temperatures will rise well into the 80s
and dew points will rise well into the 60s. With the boundary in
place, there could be an isolated shower, but overall, the day looks
dry. The low-level jet is to the east at this point so winds will be
relatively light during the day, dropping close to calm overnight.
Dry weather should prevail through Friday before another storm
system arrives for the weekend. The low will push the front back to
the north as a warm front and there will be a push of more humid air
into the region. There will be some on and off rain showers but
significant rainfall looks unlikely. The uncertainty looks to be
whether the the cold front on the backside can reach our area or
not. Right now, ensemble guidance favors it staying to the west and
causing the start of next week to be on the hotter and humid side.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...With the exception of brief MVFR/IFR
visibility at KMPV/KSLK in radiation fog about 08z to 11z, VFR
will prevail through the TAF period. Think the better chance for
fog will be at KSLK due to receiving more rain over the last
two days than KMPV. Fair weather cumulus has already dissolved,
and will redevelop after 14z tomorrow at or above 5000 ft agl.
Winds are settling down and will be light or terrain driven.
After 14z, winds will turn upslope at KRUT/KMPV/KSLK with lake
breezes at KBTV and KPBG.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes