076
FXUS64 KBRO 012316 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper-level ridge over Northeast Texas will remain the dominate
feature as it shift further east through the period. Broad
subsidence associated with this ridge and relatively dry mid
levels should keep rain chances near zero, once this current batch
of convection clears out later this afternoon.

At the surface, winds are expected to shift to a more southerly to
south-southeasterly direction, facilitating the transport of
additional low-level moisture and warm air to the region. High
temperatures Tuesday should range from the mid 90s to around 100.
Heat indices are likely to peak around 110 Tuesday afternoon,
remaining just below criteria for Heat Advisories though Special
Weather Statements may still be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the
  4th of July holiday week.

- There remains high uncertainty on the track and intensity
  forecast of Hurricane Beryl beyond 5 days. It is too early to
  determine whether there will be any impacts to Deep South Texas
  at this time.

- A credible source of information for updates is hurricanes.gov.

Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of mid/upper
level ridging through the end of the 4th of July holiday week,
which will maintain near to slightly above normal temperatures
and little to no precipitation chances. High temperatures will
range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around
100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Persistent low level
southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated dew points,
which will result in heat indices ranging from around 100 to 111
degrees each afternoon. For anyone spending a prolonged time
outdoors over the next few days, make sure you are taking the
proper precautions against the heat such as staying hydrated and
taking frequent breaks in the shade.

While you enjoy the Independence Day activities and time away from
work, make sure you are also checking back for updates on
Hurricane Beryl, which is currently moving west-northwestward from
the southern Windward Islands. Based on the latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Beryl is expected to
continue to track towards the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday and move
into the Bay of Campeche late Friday into Saturday. This could result
in a high risk of rip currents and a potential for coastal
flooding as seas increase over the Gulf of Mexico. There is still
high uncertainty on the track and intensity of Hurricane Beryl
beyond Days 3-5, especially as it encounters increased wind shear
over the next few days. That being said, we should have higher
confidence on any impacts to Deep South Texas by Thursday or
Friday, when there will be more certainty on the track of
Hurricane Beryl. Long range guidance suggests precipitation
chances may increase across portions of Deep South Texas as early
as Saturday night or Sunday as tropical moisture content
increases. Continue to check in for updates to the forecast this
week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at
all TAF sites. Mostly light southeasterly winds are expected to
continue through the cycle as well, but may become gusty during
the afternoon tomorrow. The southeasterly winds will bring in
low-level moisture that will help the development of low-level
clouds that will be persistent through the TAF period at all TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...High pressure across the Northern
Gulf will support light to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas through the period. Easterly winds are expected to shift more
southerly tonight before shifting back to the southeast Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday through next Monday...Generally favorable marine
conditions are expected through the end of the week as high
pressure builds across the Gulf. Expect light to moderate
southeast winds and low seas through Friday. Heading into the
weekend and early next week, there is uncertainty on whether there
will be any impacts associated with Hurricane Beryl as it enters
into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned to
updates from credible sources of information this week like
hurricanes.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  80  95 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               75  97  76  96 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  98  79  98 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  97  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  83  89 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  93  79  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...64-Katz