447
FXUS64 KBRO 041122 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Slightly above normal temperatures will continue to persist through
the short term forecast period thanks to the mid-level ridge and
surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a
persistent southeasterly flow that will also bring in a good deal of
low-level moisture, which in turn will lead to elevated heat indices
around 105-110. While high, they are not enough to warrant a Heat
Advisory. Thanks to the presence of the mid-level ridge, rain
chances are expected to be very low as the middle and upper levels
of the atmosphere are expected to be dry.

We are continuing to monitor the progress of Hurricane Beryl as it
continue to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Make sure you are
relying on trusted sources of information for updates, such as the
National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations,
local/county officials, etc, over the next several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Uncertainty on Beryl`s track and strength Sunday and Monday
- Deteriorating Marine and Coastal conditions deteriorate last
Saturday and  Sunday
- Slight Risk of Flash Flooding for all of Deep South Texas Sunday
and Monday

Friday night through Saturday...more of the same hot and humid
conditions with heat indices 105-110 degrees. Tuesday through
Wednesday will be questionable (but likely improving) all
dependent on the future track of Hurricane Beryl. Current timing
for any potential impacts continue to trend Sunday through Monday.

The latest National Hurricane Track of Hurricane Beryl brings Beryl
just south of Deep South Texas late Sunday into early Monday with
the Cone of Uncertainty extending north of Tampico, Mexico to just
south of Galveston, Texas.  The track has remained consistent which
helps maintain better than average confidence that the storm may
remain on the current path. However, with the Tropical Cyclone (TC)
still two days away from crossing the Yucatan and emerging into the
Southern Mexico along with wide range of solutions among
Deterministic/Ensemble and Hurricane model forecast solutions will
continue to use a consensus blend for this forecast package.  This
will include trending towards deteriorating coastal and marine
impacts including high risk of rip currents, coastal flooding, high
surf, increasing winds as well as increasing rain chances Sunday and
Monday.  WPC continues to show a slight risk of excessive rainfall
for most if not all Deep South Texas in their Day 4-5 outlooks.  All
of this is preliminary and highly dependent on the future track and
strength of Beryl. In any case, all interests along the lower Texas
coast as well as all of Deep South Texas should be preparing for
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds if the Tropical Cyclone
(strong Tropical Storm or minimal Hurricane) continues on the same
forecast track.

Latest Rainfall amounts from WPC show 2-5 inch totals Saturday-
Monday with another inch or more Tuesday-Wednesday. This could
easily increase with amounts 6-8 inches or more all dependent on the
track and speed of the TC if it remains on the current forecast
track and how fast in moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through
the TAF cycle. Southeasterly winds are expected to become gusty
during the late morning and through the early evening hours at all
TAF sites with winds gusting up to 25 knots possible. This
southeast flow will allow for moisture to move into the region
that will bring in a few low-level clouds to the area as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today through Friday...High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
allow for light to moderate southeasterly flow with low to moderate
seas. Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Friday.

Friday night through Wednesday...there remains a lot of uncertainty
with the future track of Hurricane Beryl as it emerges over the
Southern Gulf of Mexico in a projected weaken state Friday night.
Marine interest along the Lower Texas coast should be prepared for
deteriorating marine conditions as early as Saturday morning with
the potential for tropical storm or hurricane conditions Sunday
into Monday. Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center
(NHC) shows Beryl approaching NE Mexico Sunday evening however
there remains a wide cone of uncertainty (possible track) from
Tampico, Mexico to south of Galveston, Texas. Mariners need to
maintain high vigilance and monitor the latest forecast from NWS
Brownsville and NHC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  81  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               97  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 98  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  78 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  88  83 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     94  79  93  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...64-Katz