Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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060 FXUS64 KBRO 291926 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 An upper-level ridge will remain over Northern Texas through the period, while a mid-level inverted trough moves across the Southern Gulf and into Mexico. This will support a tropical disturbance moving across the Bay of Campeche this weekend. The NHC has a 50% chance of Tropical Cyclone development with this system over the next 48 hours. Should further development occur, the system would most likely make landfall in Mexico, with most of the impacts remain to our south. Regardless of any further development, this system is expected to increase moisture tonight and Sunday, supporting the potential for showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas. PWATs are expected to increase to 2 2.3 with moderate instability and weak forcing. Rain chances are expected to continue through the day Sunday before decreasing Sunday night. With the increased cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be slightly lower Sunday and Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday will likely remain in the low to mid 90s, with low temperatures Sunday night in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The long term forecast begins on Monday with a 500 mb high pressure centered over the general vicinity of northeastern Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Deep South Texas will still be in a more moist environment as the northern periphery of a tropical wave, located in the Bay of Campeche, continues to advect remnant influxes of deep tropical moisture as it moves inland into Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently indicates a medium chance (50%) of the system developing into a tropical disturbance before making landfall somewhere between Veracruz and Tampico. Despite the stabilizing effect of the nearby high pressure, a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday as precipitable water (PWAT) values may exceed 2.0 inches during the day. However, the probability of rain is 20 to 30% and limited to the RGV. By Monday evening, chances of rain drop off considerably and winds will shift from easterly to southeasterly as the 500 mb high pressure begins to push eastward. The rest of the forecast looks to be quiet aside from daily isolated showers and thunderstorms from sea breezes by midweek as the high broadens across the southern U.S. and moisture wraps around its southern fringe. In regards to temperatures, daily highs will range from mid to upper 80s for the barrier islands and lower to upper 90s inland. By midweek, maximum temperatures will approach, and slightly surpass, 100 across the Rio Grande Plains and Special Weather Statements may be issued for central and eastern Deep South Texas as humid southeasterly onshore flow and temperatures result in heat indices potentially reaching 110-113 for a few hours in the late afternoon, but not long enough to meet Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight low temperatures will range from lower 80s across the barrier islands and lower RGV as well as mid to upper 70s elsewhere. However, as the week progresses, lower 80s will expand into the rest of the RGV and Rio Grande Plains while upper 70s are expected for the rest of inland portions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR Conditions are expected to continue this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Rain chances are expected to increase near the end of the TAF period, possibly supporting MVFR conditions developing Sunday morning. Gusty winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts diminishing this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is expected to move westward through the short term period. Meanwhile a broad area of high pressure over the Northern Gulf will support generally easterly winds across the Northern Gulf. The combination of these systems will likely lead to building seas through the period, with Small Craft Advisories likely to be needed Sunday. While the NHC has a 50% chance for Tropical Cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours, the system is expected to remain to the south before making landfall in Mexico. Impacts from this system will likely be limited to increased rain chances and slightly higher seas Sunday. Monday through Saturday...Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) may continue to result from elevated seas on Monday as swell, generated by a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche, continues to push through the Gulf waters. However, seas will improve going into Tuesday and beyond, leading to more ideal conditions for the rest of the week though SCEC conditions are possible by midweek as a weak pressure gradient results in moderate southeasterly winds during the daytime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 92 80 94 / 20 60 30 30 HARLINGEN 78 93 76 94 / 10 50 20 30 MCALLEN 81 94 79 96 / 10 60 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 93 77 94 / 0 60 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 84 88 / 20 50 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 91 80 92 / 10 50 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...60-BE