881
FXUS65 KBOU 300538
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1138 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms, a few strong to severe.

- Continued heat across the region.

- Downward trend in showers and storms beyond Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Rapid heating late afternoon today under mostly clear skies
(Denver reached an impressive 87F!) allowed for the robust cap to
erode just in time for a few thunderstorms to develop over the
Denver metro. For the rest of the evening, most of the area should
just see isolated to scattered showers from dissipating
convection, with a few rumbles of thunder in spots, most likely in
the mountains. Stronger southeast surface winds this evening may
also enhance the upslope component over El Paso County and the
Palmer Divide, and sustain some late evening showers and
thunderstorms into Elbert and Lincoln Counties. Other than minor
adjustments to near-term PoPs and temperatures, few changes were
made to the forecast this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite shows a clear picture on where the instability has
developed this afternoon (although marginal in magnitude). Cumulus
is in good coverage across the high country. A couple of convective
showers have already initiated mainly, across the northern high
country. Showers and storms are expected to continue to develop
across the high country this afternoon, extending eastward to the
Foothills and adjacent plains. ACARS soundings around Denver show a
defined capping inversion this afternoon, an indicator that it is
quite stable out there. Although temperatures are slowly warming
with less cloud cover this afternoon, it will be a hard cap to
break (4-6deg). This would act limit shower/storm development and
won`t maintain most showers/storms that make their way off the
terrain for long. More south of I-70 (south Den. Metro, foothills,
South Park, Palmer Divide) will have higher chances. High-res
CAMs show potential for showers and storms to move eastward off
the high terrain toward early evening with greater chances for the
Palmer Divide and south metro. If it does warm another several
degrees, can`t rule out a strong storm or two. Later tonight
shower/storms move east across southern Lincoln County with
potential for localized heavier rainfall shown by HREF mean
QPF/PMM.

Sunday, will be warmer and a bit more unstable. The thermal ridge
nudges eastward warming mid-level temperatures and with lesser low
clouds will likely bring the return to 90s for the plains. West
urban corridor may be just under 90s. This will depend on how much
mid-level clouds stick around. MLCAPE 500-1200 J/kg and sufficient
moisture and 0-6km bulk shear will support scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon/early eve with a couple strong to severe
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Monday - Tuesday...Mid-level ridge axis begins to shift towards the
east with weaker troughing trying to carve into the top of said
ridging. Lingering moisture could produce some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and drift off
towards the east...fairly typical pattern. Temperature-wise, we look
to be at or slightly above early July averages, though Tuesday could
trend cooler with the trough passage.

Wednesday - Saturday...Ridging builds back in across the west by the
middle part of the week sending temperatures back above average. Not
really a lot of moisture around so rain chances are lower, 15-20%,
but also very isolated. As mentioned by the previous shift, do we
get backdoor cold fronted late in the week for a cool off and some
scattered showers around the holiday or do we stay hot and dry?
Still lots to watch it play out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Still expecting stronger than normal
drainage flow overnight tonight. Starting to see some gustier
southerlies develop at APA with the wind shift line expected to
reach DEN before 07z.

Winds should weaken by late Sunday morning or early Sunday
afternoon, and should attempt to turn to more of an easterly
component. Guidance shows widely scattered convection again, but
no clear timing signal for when storms would be most likely to
affect the terminals. Opted for a long period of VCTS, turning to
VCSH, until there`s more confidence on any sort of timing.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rodriguez
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Heavener
AVIATION...Hiris