491
FXUS65 KBOI 041525
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
925 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies with near-normal temperatures today.
It will begin to heat up tomorrow, and continue to get hotter
with time. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect for much of
the area, beginning Saturday for SE Oregon, the Lower Treasure
Valley of ID, and the Owyhees. The watch begins Monday for the
lower elevations in Idaho that did not start Saturday. This is
all handled well by the current forecast, and no changes will be
made at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: variable less than
10 kt becoming mainly NW 6-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 18Z.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Variable winds to 6 kt becoming
NW 5-15 kt after 18Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR under mostly clear skies. High density
altitude due to hot temperatures. Variable winds less than 10 kt
during the late evenings through mornings, and generally NW 5-15 kt
with gusts of 15-25 kt during the afternoons and early evenings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Dry northwest flow
aloft will persist through the short term as a strong upper
level ridge remains anchored to the West Coast and upper level
troughing continues over the Northern Plains. The upper level
ridge will very gradually build inland into the weekend,
bringing several degrees of warming each day. Highs today will
be near normal under sunny skies. By Saturday, lower elevations
will see highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, warmest in
southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho which will be closest
to the ridge axis. The heat will continue to build during the
long term period. Winds today will be lighter than yesterday
but still locally breezy with gusts 15-25 mph southeast of
Boise. Winds will increase Friday and Saturday as systems pass
well to our north with afternoon gusts 20-35 mph, strongest in
the Magic Valley. This will combine with very dry conditions to
create elevated fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain consistent
with the strength and eastward progression of a large intense
high pressure ridge that will deliver dry conditions and a
prolonged heat wave across the region. The hottest temperatures
coincide with the ridge axis, which targets Oregon early next
week then shifts into Idaho by Monday or Tuesday. High
temperatures trend slightly hotter each day, peaking on
Wednesday and Thursday. Record or near record temperatures are
likely at many locations. The models are indicating some limited
moisture moving up from the the south as the ridge axis shifts
to the east by Wednesday, but not enough to mention any showers
or thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon IDZ012-029.
     Fire Weather Watch Friday evening IDZ424-426.
     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon IDZ014>016-030-033.
OR...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon ORZ061>064.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....BW