824
FXUS65 KBOI 292004
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
204 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...An upper level
shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will move
from west to east through the area tonight through Sunday.
Moisture is limited with this system, but GOES water vapor
imagery shows enough moisture to mention a 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms when it moves through Baker
County and the West Central Mountains of Idaho tonight and on
Sunday. There is also a slight (20 %) chance of isolated
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern Idaho and
southern Oregon near the Nevada border on Sunday, but the front
is not expected to have enough moisture to produce precipitation
in lower valley locations. Temperatures will be about 10
degrees cooler behind the front brining near normal temperatures
to the area Sunday and Monday.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Dry weather is expected
to continue through the period with a slow warming trend as an
upper level ridge builds over the area. Very hot weather is
possible late next week especially if the latest runs of the GFS
model verify which show the amplitude of the 500 mb upper level
ridge reaching 600 decameters over the western United States by
next Saturday. Not all model runs support this extremely hot
upper level pattern in the extended forecast, but there is at
least a 50 percent chance of highs exceeding 100 degrees in
lower valley locations by next Saturday.

&&

BOI...VFR. Increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon and
isolated showers and thunderstorms late this evening northwest
of KBNO-KONO-KMYL. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt increasing to 10 to
15 kts with cold frontal passage late tonight.

Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain. Surface winds:
NW 10-20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt southeast of KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB