467
FXUS65 KBOI 302022
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
222 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...An upper level
trough will move by tonight through tomorrow, helping isolated
thunderstorms to form both this afternoon/evening and Monday
afternoon/evening. Storms will be capable of small hail and wind
gusts to 40 mph. These storms are forecast in the northern
higher terrain, near the NV border in SE Oregon, and in/near
Owyhee and Twin Falls counties. Outside those areas, expect
partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures, with readings a few
degrees below normal. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be dry with
temps remaining a few degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...A dry and hot pattern
is very likely to take shape during the second half of the week.
The primary feature of interest will be a strong anticyclone
and accompanying ridge centered near the Pacific coast. GEFS/EPS
ensemble mean forecasts are consistent in keeping the ridge
positioned to the west, which will likely keep the potential for
record-setting temperatures at bay at least temporarily. This
is a departure from some earlier deterministic model runs which
were showing an exceptionally strong ridge moving directly into
the Great Basin. Regardless, it will still be very hot, with
probabilities of high temperatures exceeding 100 degrees peaking
on Saturday and Sunday at 40-60% through the Snake Valley and
southeast Oregon. There is even around a 10% chance Ontario,
Oregon reaches 110 degrees this upcoming weekend.

Precipitation chances will also remain near-zero throughout this
entire period, with any hints of Monsoon moisture shunted well to
the south. Wednesday will see elevated fire weather potential for
parts of the Magic Valley amidst an increase in west winds and low
humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Mid to high clouds with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today near the Nevada border and
the west-central Mountains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
also drift into the Magic Valley late this afternoon and evening,
with a 20% chance of a storm at KTWF/KJER. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20
kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near thunderstorms.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered mid clouds this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
develop well to the south and north/northeast with no impacts
expected at the terminal. Surface winds NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25
kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....JR