630
FXUS65 KBOI 011530
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
930 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening from SE Oregon through Owyhee and southern
Twin Falls counties, and also in the West Central and Boise
mountains. Wind gusts to 45 mph and small hail are likely with
the stronger storms. After today, it will be dry through the end
of the week. The next few days will continue to have
temperatures below normal, but we will heat up rapidly toward
the end of the week, and extreme heat is now looking likely next
week. We did an update earlier this morning to increase the
chance of thunderstorms in some areas, and no additional updates
are being made at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with high based clouds and the chance of
isolated showers/thunderstorms across southeast Oregon, and
southwest and central Idaho after 20Z. Stronger storms could
produce winds gusts of 20-25 kt. Surface winds: W/NW 5-10 kt,
increasing to 12-20 kt after 18Z.

KBOI...VFR with a few afternoon clouds, and showers possible around
higher terrain after 20Z. Winds becoming W/NW 10-20kt after
18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Slightly cooler
than normal temperatures today through Wednesday night as an
upper trough remains over the northern Intermountain Region.
Limited moisture but significant instability will lead to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in the central Idaho
Mountains and eastern part of the Boise Mountains, and isolated
weaker thunderstorms in and near the Owyhee Mountains. The
stronger northern storms may have small hail and wind gusts to
40 mph. Moisture will shift east tonight and the trough will
weaken slightly Tuesday. But a short wave trough off the BC
coast will strengthen the main trough again Wednesday. A dry
surface cold front will pass through our zones Wednesday with
only a slight lowering of daytime temperatures, but west/
northwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon to 15-30 mph
over open terrain. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening and
with clear skies and dry air, nighttime lows will dip to to 40s
and 50s in the valleys and 30s to mid 40s in the mountains and
higher basins.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Dry northwest flow will
continue Thursday through at least Saturday as our area remains
between an upper level trough over the Northern Plains and a strong
upper level ridge centered along the California coast. This will
bring dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will also trend upward
as the ridge gradually builds inland, rising from near normal on
Thursday to around 10 degrees above normal on Saturday, which
translates to around 100 degrees for the lower valleys. The main
uncertainty after Saturday is how quickly the upper level ridge
moves overhead. Very hot temperatures are likely as the ridge moves
inland, with at least a 50% chance of highs 100F or warmer each day
in the lower valleys Sunday into the following week, and a 5-15%
chance of highs 110F or warmer.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST