Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
713 FXUS65 KBOI 262059 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 259 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to intensify with the afternoon heating. A severe storm near Nyssa has caused significant wind damage already and radar indicated 2" hail in the core of the storm. Similiar storms expected to form this afternoon, with the peak heating of the day. With high temperatures in the mid 90s in the lower valleys today, CAPE values reach 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon along with sufficient effective bulk shear (30-40kts) for strong and organized thunderstorms. High resolution guidance also shows storms with rotating updrafts capable of up to 1-2" hail this afternoon. Main threat will be wind gusts up to 50-60kts with significant DCAPE of 1500 j/kg, and heavy rain. Some storms may produce ponding of water, as storm motions will be 10-20kts. Severe storm threat will slowly wind down this evening, but thunderstorm threat will continue into the night over the central ID mountains. Drier air will move in from the west by Thursday morning, with about 15 degrees of cooling on Thursday afternoon compared to today`s highs. Cool northwest flow will continue into Friday with temperatures around 5 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A shortwave ridge will move over the area on Saturday, with temperatures rising back into the mid 90s in the lower valleys. A trough off the Pacific NW coast enhance the threat of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Westerly flow thereafter will keep temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR with mid/high level clouds, with isolated to scattered IFR in showers/thunderstorms across SE Oregon and SW Idaho, continuing through the evening on the Idaho side. Outflow gusts 30-55 kt, blowing dust and large hail possible. Hot daytime temperatures will increase density altitude today. Surface winds: SE to SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt in E Oregon and near NV/ID border through 27/03Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-30 kt. KBOI...Mostly VFR with mid/high level clouds. A 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms hitting terminal between 26/18Z and 27/00Z, with outflow gusts of 30-45 kt possible. Surface winds outside of storms: NE-SE 5-15 kt, transitioning to NW this evening. Hot daytime temperatures will increase density altitude today. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ401-402. OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ636-637. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....SP