Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
952 FXUS65 KBOI 280933 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 333 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Upper trough and cool air will exit east today allowing an upper ridge to build northward in the Great Basin. On Saturday the upper ridge will be along the Continental Divide with our CWA under southwest flow aloft. Saturday will be a full 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today and back into the 90s in the valleys and 80s in the mountains. Clouds will increase in Oregon Saturday as a Pacific upper trough nears the coast. On Sunday the trough will be inland over Oregon with increasing moisture and instability leading to a 15 to 25 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southeast Oregon, and then a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in Baker County/OR and the west central Idaho mountains Sunday night. The moisture source will be north of 40N in the Pacific, unlike the monsoon surge Wednesday from southern CA/AZ and NV. Still, this moisture and instability ahead of an approaching cold front will produce at least some strong, if not severe, thunderstorms Sunday night. Finally, wildfires in southeast Oregon will create patchy smoke in Malheur County/OR and nearby parts of southwest Idaho today and Saturday. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper level trough will move across the Pacific NW on Monday. However, the trough will not be deep and temperatures will remain near normal. Moisture will be limited with a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the central Idaho mountains, with dry conditions elsewhere. Winds will be breezy, strongest across south-central Idaho where gusts to 40 mph are possible. For Tuesday through Friday, the center of an upper level ridge will gradually move from the eastern Pacific to northern California and Nevada, while upper level troughing continues across Montana and the northern Great Plains. This will place our area in a dry northwest flow, bringing breezy afternoon winds each day with little to no chance of precipitation. Temperatures will gradually warm as the ridge axis moves inland, with highs by Friday around 5 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR under mostly clear skies. Patchy smoke/haze from regional wildfires may reduce visibility. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W-NW less than 10 kt. Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Potential for smoke/haze to continue near wildfires. Increasing clouds late Saturday and Sunday. A 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop over northeast Oregon Saturday night, spreading to southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho on Sunday. Surface winds: SE- SW 5-15 kt on Saturday, becoming NW 10-20 kt Saturday night and Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST