Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
824 FXUS65 KBOI 292004 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 204 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...An upper level shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will move from west to east through the area tonight through Sunday. Moisture is limited with this system, but GOES water vapor imagery shows enough moisture to mention a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms when it moves through Baker County and the West Central Mountains of Idaho tonight and on Sunday. There is also a slight (20 %) chance of isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern Idaho and southern Oregon near the Nevada border on Sunday, but the front is not expected to have enough moisture to produce precipitation in lower valley locations. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler behind the front brining near normal temperatures to the area Sunday and Monday. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Dry weather is expected to continue through the period with a slow warming trend as an upper level ridge builds over the area. Very hot weather is possible late next week especially if the latest runs of the GFS model verify which show the amplitude of the 500 mb upper level ridge reaching 600 decameters over the western United States by next Saturday. Not all model runs support this extremely hot upper level pattern in the extended forecast, but there is at least a 50 percent chance of highs exceeding 100 degrees in lower valley locations by next Saturday. && BOI...VFR. Increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon and isolated showers and thunderstorms late this evening northwest of KBNO-KONO-KMYL. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kts with cold frontal passage late tonight. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt southeast of KBOI. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB AVIATION.....JB