502
FXUS65 KBOI 300249
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
849 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...The cold front is steadily tracking across the
inland Pacific Northwest this evening, with gusty winds around
30 mph ahead of the front observed at Burns, OR and Rome, OR.
This front looks to bring light rain showers tonight and
tomorrow morning to most of the region, with a low chance (<20%
chance) of thunderstorms after frontal passage on Sunday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool down quite a bit after the
frontal passage, with highs right around normal for most of the
region tomorrow. No updates necessary to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. High density altitudes due to hot
temperatures today. Mid to high clouds increasing overnight with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across northeast Oregon and west-central Idaho, including near
KBKE and KMYL. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, with local gusts
to 35 kt KBKE-KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt overnight,
becoming NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by Sun./08Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...An upper level
shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will move
from west to east through the area tonight through Sunday.
Moisture is limited with this system, but GOES water vapor
imagery shows enough moisture to mention a 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms when it moves through Baker
County and the West Central Mountains of Idaho tonight and on
Sunday. There is also a slight (20 %) chance of isolated
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern Idaho and
southern Oregon near the Nevada border on Sunday, but the front
is not expected to have enough moisture to produce precipitation
in lower valley locations. Temperatures will be about 10
degrees cooler behind the front brining near normal temperatures
to the area Sunday and Monday.


LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Dry weather is expected
to continue through the period with a slow warming trend as an
upper level ridge builds over the area. Very hot weather is
possible late next week especially if the latest runs of the GFS
model verify which show the amplitude of the 500 mb upper level
ridge reaching 600 decameters over the western United States by
next Saturday. Not all model runs support this extremely hot
upper level pattern in the extended forecast, but there is at
least a 50 percent chance of highs exceeding 100 degrees in
lower valley locations by next Saturday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB