586
FXUS64 KBMX 301759
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

A boundary will move south through the area this afternoon and
evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop ahead
the boundary. Instabilities will be between around 3000 J/kg with
shear around 30-40 kts. PW values will be max for this time of
year, around 2 inches. Would expect a few thunderstorms could be
strong with gusty winds and high rainfall rates. Activity will be
scattered through the afternoon, becoming more isolated this
evening as the boundary moves south and drier air advects into the
state. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s, and with
so much low level moisture, heat indices will be between 105 to
110. Will keep the Heat Advisory going through the afternoon and
early evening.

Tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clearing expected
from north to south through the night. High pressure develops over
the MS River Valley and northerly flow will prevail tonight and
Monday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Monday, the boundary is expected to slow down and stall somewhere
around the southeastern counties, in an area of I85 and
southeastward. Areas south of the boundary could see additional
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon Monday, though
areas north should remain dry. PW values will remain close to max
in the areas south of the boundary, with instabilities around
1000-2500 J/kg. North of the boundary, PW values will be down to
the 50th percentile. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and thanks the drier air, the heat indices will be
in the upper 80s in the north, to the mid 90s mid state, to
triple digits in the south, closer to that boundary. Will assess
if an additional Heat Advisory is needed for Monday afternoon in
the southern counties.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Key message:

- Heat and humidity will build through the week with heat indices
  at or above 105 degrees across much of Central Alabama by the
  time the holiday weekend arrives.

A strong subtropical ridge will meander across the Southeast
through the rest of the week, resulting in continued mainly above
normal temperatures and keeping diurnal convection from becoming
too widespread. At the surface, a 1025mb high moving eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic will cause a "cool" air damming wedge to build
down the East Coast. Lingering higher dew points will push
westward from Georgia in advance of the wedge front putting an end
to the temporary humidity reprieve. With low-level southeasterly
flow and weak isentropic lift a couple showers or a storms will be
possible in our southeast counties Monday night. The wedge arrives
on Tuesday with noticeable easterly winds. It will keep highs in
portions of East Alabama in the 80s, while West Alabama remains
hot with heat indices just under 105. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms will be possible with sufficient low-level
moisture, but very dry air aloft should limit coverage and think
NBM PoPs are too high. The wedge weakens by Wednesday, and expect
gradually warming temperatures and heat indices through the rest
of the week with coverage of areas with 105+ degree heat indices
increasing through the week. Expect just isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Friday into Saturday a weakness in the ridge will eventually
develop due to a trough in the westerlies, potentially resulting
in an increasing coverage of convection.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move through
the state this afternoon and evening. Low level moisture is max
for this time of year, so any activity that moves over a TAF site
will likely drop visibilities to IFR or LIFR. Have included VCSH
at most TAF sites for now due to uncertainties in timing, and
will amend when confidence increases. The boundary bringing this
activity will stall somewhere around or south of KMGM. Fog
development is possible at KMGM in the early morning, but left
mention out of TAF for now due to uncertainty where the boundary
stalls. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expected through
the day Monday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KASN due to missing ceilings.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A humid air mass will remain in place today with scattered to
numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass temporarily moves in
on Monday with RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the
northern half of Central Alabama, and 40 to 50 percent range
across the south. Minimum RH values increase to above 45 percent
areawide for Tuesday. Winds generally remain light Sunday, and
become northerly Monday at 5 to 8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  71  92  67 /  60  20   0   0
Anniston    93  73  92  71 /  60  20  10  10
Birmingham  95  73  94  72 /  60  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  95  73  94  69 /  50  20   0   0
Calera      95  74  94  72 /  50  20  10   0
Auburn      93  75  94  73 /  60  30  20  20
Montgomery  96  75  95  74 /  70  40  10  10
Troy        94  73  96  72 /  70  50  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...24