224
FXUS64 KBMX 020552
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will become centered over Northern Louisiana
overnight with a northerly flow aloft over the area. Strong and
expansive surface high pressure will move east, becoming centered
across the Eastern Great Lakes Region. The surface boundary will
become positioned just to the south of our forecast area, roughly
along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor overnight. The position of the
ridging to our northeast will promote a developing easterly flow
across the area, resulting in easterly winds developing overnight
and increased potential for lower clouds to develop and move west
into the eastern counties later tonight before sunrise on Tuesday.

Skies will range from mostly clear west to mostly cloudy
conditions toward sunrise east. A few isolated showers and storms
will be possible across the far east and southeast counties
overnight. Winds will become easterly with speeds from 4-8 mph.
Lows will range from the mid 60s far northwest to the mid 70s
southeast and south-central.

Tuesday.

The mid-level ridging will become centered over the Mid-South
Region on Tuesday while strong surface high pressure becomes
elongated in form across much of the Northeast Metropolitan
Corridor, extending southwest down the Appalachians. A weak front
will be positioned roughly along Interstate 10 across Northern
Florida while a weak easterly flow trough will be positioned
meridionally across the western portion of the state.

Expect skies to range from partly cloudy west to mostly cloudy
east on Tuesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59
corridor with best chances closer to the Interstate 85 corridor
across the southeast counties. Winds will be from the southeast at
6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the
higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 90s west and
southwest. A heat advisory may be needed for portions of the
southwest counties, generally from Tuscaloosa to Selma and west
where temperatures will be high enough to combine with the
humidity to create heat index values from 105-107 degrees based
upon this forecast update.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Forecast trends remain the same through this week, with hot and
humid conditions through much of the week. Heat indices will be
back in the 103 to 108F range for much of the area each afternoon.
Better rain chances return for the weekend, as a weak front
arrives from the north and stalls across the area. See previous
discussion for details.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Key messages:

- Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday
  weekend with heat indices at or above 105.

- Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected
  Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick
  in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday.

The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama
Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards
the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough
over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered
diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105
especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the
southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough
begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then
stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for
an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a
pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the
south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will
result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on
Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most
likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large
majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered
westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well
removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC
forecasts.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

A few showers are trying to hold together and slide in from
Georgia overnight. The only site with potential for precipitation
is MGM. At this time, it appears the chances are too low to
mention. A westward moving trough will increase low level moisture
overnight. There may be some clouds developing late closer to
sunrise so continued with the tempo for MVFR ceilings to all but
TCL. Also added in prob30 for TSRA at MGM after 18z. Winds become
variable 5 kts overnight, then shift east southeast behind the
trough around 10 kts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture returns Tuesday, with minimum RH values above 40 percent
for most of the area. A small area near the MS state line could
drop into the 35 to 40 percent range. Easterly 20ft winds will be
5-9mph, with the weakest winds near the MS state line. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible across the southern half
of Central Alabama. For Wednesday and Thursday, minimum RH values
will be above 45 percent areawide, with isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms. 20ft winds become light at less than
5mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  93  72 /  10   0  20  10
Anniston    89  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
Birmingham  93  75  94  76 /  20   0  30  10
Tuscaloosa  95  76  95  75 /  20  10  30  10
Calera      93  75  93  76 /  20  10  30  10
Auburn      88  74  90  75 /  30  10  50  10
Montgomery  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  10
Troy        91  73  91  73 /  50  30  70  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16