650
FXUS64 KBMX 021759
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

The strong, mid-level ridge is centered over the Lower MS River
Valley while, at the surface, high pressure is focused along the
East Coast extending south into the Mid-Atlantic region. There`s
north-northeasterly flow aloft and east-southeasterly flow in the
lower levels. The low-level flow is providing a moist, humid
airmass which is resulting in mid 70s dewpoints, and a cu field
over much of the area. Temperatures have remained in the 80s
across the east, but will warm into the 90s in the west where heat
indices will approach 105F this afternoon and again tomorrow as
the moist airmass will still be in place. There`s weak surface
convergence associated with the stalled front to our south, and
showers have developed over southern Georgia. This activity could
slowly drift into southeast Alabama this afternoon, and may reach
southeastern portions of the forecast area. Muggy conditions are
expected overnight with lows in the mid 70s. Rain chances look
higher tomorrow as low-level moisture continues to advect inland
through the southerly flow, but the greatest likelihood of seeing
a shower or storm will be across the southern half of the area.
Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Key messages:

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of
  Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered
  afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be
  prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor
  activities.

- A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through
  the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending
  on the coverage of showers and storms each day.

Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will
gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the
period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central
CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the
south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day,
however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon
showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated
showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after
sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above
105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong
shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front
sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the
westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern
half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers
and storms should increase in coverage especially across the
northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but
temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move
into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105
degrees.

A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next
week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central
CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area
with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This
should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though
they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties
depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by
NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the
southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble
spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into
Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the
northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify,
it`s plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the
ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern
looks to be setting up by next week.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Moist, easterly flow has produced a low-level cloud deck across much
of the area today. Ceilings will rise through the afternoon, and the
clouds should mix apart somewhat. Expect VFR conditions to return
within the next couple of hours. It`s likely that low ceilings will
redevelop again early tomorrow morning as the flow remains from the
east, so expect MVFR/IFR conditions to return around 12-14Z then
follow a similar trend of improvement through late morning.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions are expected through the rest of the
week. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible
especially across the southern half of Central Alabama today and
Wednesday, and across all of Central Alabama by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  95  72  94 /  10  20  10  40
Anniston    74  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  40
Birmingham  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
Tuscaloosa  77  95  76  95 /  10  30  10  30
Calera      76  94  76  94 /  10  30  10  40
Auburn      75  90  75  92 /  10  50  20  40
Montgomery  75  93  76  95 /  20  60  10  40
Troy        73  92  73  94 /  30  70  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-
Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...86/Martin