437
FXUS64 KBMX 012050
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
350 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

This afternoon.

. Heat Advisory remains in effect across portions of Southeast
and South-Central Alabama through 7 pm this evening.

The forecast area is positioned on the eastern periphery of a
sprawling mid to upper level ridge centered over far Northeast
Texas. Strong and expansive surface high pressure was centered
across the Northern Extent of Lake Michigan and was supporting a
weak front`s southward movement across the area with drier air
across the far northern portion of the area with higher humidity
across the central and southern counties at this writing.

Skies will range from mostly sunny north to partly cloudy over
the south and central counties today. There will be a chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorm activity across the far
southeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon, where the
lower and middle levels are sufficiently moist. Winds will become
northerly areawide from 6-12 mph and potentially breezy at times
through sunset as the boundary layer becomes well mixed behind the
front. High temperatures will range from around 90 across the far
northern tier and in the higher elevations east and central to
the upper 90s across the southern third of the area. The
combination of these temperatures with high humidity across the
southeast and portions of our south-central counties with heat
index values topping out around 110 degrees this afternoon across
portions of Russell/Barbour and Pike Counties with values from 105
to 108 degrees elsewhere in the advisory area.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will become centered over Northern Louisiana
overnight with a northerly flow aloft over the area. Strong and
expansive surface high pressure will move east, becoming centered
across the Eastern Great Lakes Region. The surface boundary will
become positioned just to the south of our forecast area, roughly
along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor overnight. The position of the
ridging to our northeast will promote a developing easterly flow
across the area, resulting in easterly winds developing overnight
and increased potential for lower clouds to develop and move west
into the eastern counties later tonight before sunrise on Tuesday.

Skies will range from mostly clear west to mostly cloudy
conditions toward sunrise east. A few isolated showers and storms
will be possible across the far east and southeast counties
overnight. Winds will become easterly with speeds from 4-8 mph.
Lows will range from the mid 60s far northwest to the mid 70s
southeast and south-central.

Tuesday.

The mid-level ridging will become centered over the Mid-South
Region on Tuesday while strong surface high pressure becomes
elongated in form across much of the Northeast Metropolitan
Corridor, extending southwest down the Appalachians. A weak front
will be positioned roughly along Interstate 10 across Northern
Florida while a weak easterly flow trough will be positioned
meridionally across the western portion of the state.

Expect skies to range from partly cloudy west to mostly cloudy
east on Tuesday. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible generally near and southeast of the Interstate 59
corridor with best chances closer to the Interstate 85 corridor
across the southeast counties. Winds will be from the southeast at
6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the
higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 90s west and
southwest. A heat advisory may be needed for portions of the
southwest counties, generally from Tuscaloosa to Selma and west
where temperatures will be high enough to combine with the
humidity to create heat index values from 105-107 degrees based
upon this forecast update.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Forecast trends remain the same through this week, with hot and
humid conditions through much of the week. Heat indices will be
back in the 103 to 108F range for much of the area each afternoon.
Better rain chances return for the weekend, as a weak front
arrives from the north and stalls across the area. See previous
discussion for details.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

Key messages:

- Hot and humid conditions continue into much of the holiday
  weekend with heat indices at or above 105.

- Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected
  Wednesday and Independence Day with the potential for an uptick
  in shower and thunderstorms coverage Friday and Saturday.

The strong subtropical ridge will remain over Central Alabama
Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to push eastward towards
the Atlantic Friday and Saturday in response to a deepening trough
over the north-central CONUS. Hot and humid conditions are
expected Wednesday and Thursday with isolated to widely scattered
diurnal convection. Heat indices will be near or above 105
especially along and west of I-65. Friday into the weekend the
southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough
begin to dip into the area as a cold front approaches and then
stalls over North Alabama. This will result in the potential for
an increase in coverage of showers and storms as we begin to see a
pattern change with a weakness in the ridge developing over the
south-central CONUS. Pooling dew points south of the front will
result in the potential for the highest heat indices occurring on
Friday depending on how quickly convection initiates. The most
likely scenario for the track of Hurricane Beryl per the large
majority of ensemble members at this time is for it to be steered
westward by the ridge to the southwestern Gulf and remain well
removed from the northern Gulf Coast. Please see the latest NHC
forecasts.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through this cycle. An
easterly flow will develop tonight and may result in conditions
close to MVFR at KANB and potentially KASN early through mid
morning Tuesday, but maintained prevailing VFR conditions for this
issuance. Cumulus development this afternoon will be most
prevalent south with some showers and storms possible across the
far southeast. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible
far southeast overnight, followed by isolated showers and storms
across much of the southeastern portion of the area up to the end
of this forecast cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture returns Tuesday, with minimum RH values above 40 percent
for most of the area. A small area near the MS state line could
drop into the 35 to 40 percent range. Easterly 20ft winds will be
5-9mph, with the weakest winds near the MS state line. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are possible across the southern half
of Central Alabama. For Wednesday and Thursday, minimum RH values
will be above 45 percent areawide, with isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and storms. 20ft winds become light at less than
5mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  91  70  93 /   0  10  10  20
Anniston    71  89  73  92 /  10  20  10  20
Birmingham  71  93  75  94 /   0  10  10  20
Tuscaloosa  69  98  76  96 /   0  10  10  20
Calera      70  93  75  94 /   0  20  10  30
Auburn      73  88  73  89 /  20  40  20  40
Montgomery  75  95  74  94 /   0  40  20  40
Troy        74  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05