790
FXUS64 KBMX 021143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
643 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Currently the weak front has stalled near the Montgomery area
(or just south) as depicted by dewpoint trends. Eufaula has a
dewpoint of 75, Selma 73, Troy 72, and Montgomery 71. Just north of
the Alabama River Prattville`s dewpoint is at 68. So somewhere in
that that vicinity.  Mid-level ridging to our north has allowed
easterly flow to develop. This flow is escorting a trough in the
east counties this morning. Am isolated shower and lower clouds are
observed with this trough that is wedging into the area.

As we move past sunrise, the frontal boundary actually move to the
south of the area, but the trough will continue to slide west. Rain
chances will increase from east to west through the day as well as
possibly expanding to the north right along the trough axis in the
afternoon. With the clouds and increase in rain there will be a
temperature gradient across the state with upper 80s in the east to
mid to upper 90s in the west. Enough concern over the heat levels in
the west has warranted a Heat Advisory for the western zones today
and will continue through Wednesday. Any shower or storm should
quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of the heating for the
day. Clouds will remain and lower again overnight. We will begin to
see an increase in the southerly winds overnight so more moisture
will begin to work into the area. Lows will ,be in the low to mid
70s.

For Wednesday, the added moisture means increased dewpoints.
Temperatures will not be much different that today, so feel as
though the heat concern will be for much of the same area on
Wednesday. This is the reason for going ahead an going through
Wednesday. We may need to expand on Wednesday, but we should see
more coverage of showers and storms so confidence was not high
enough to include any more counties for now. This is just the start
of several days this week that Heat Advisories will be issued so
plan now.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

Key messages:

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of
  Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered
  afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be
  prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor
  activities.

- A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through
  the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending
  on the coverage of showers and storms each day.

Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will
gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the
period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central
CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the
south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day,
however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon
showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated
showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after
sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above
105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong
shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front
sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the
westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern
half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers
and storms should increase in coverage especially across the
northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but
temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move
into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105
degrees.

A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next
week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central
CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area
with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This
should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though
they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties
depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by
NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the
southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble
spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into
Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the
northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify,
it`s plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the
ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern
looks to be setting up by next week.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024

The westward moving trough will help clouds move west this morning
but should now only impact MGM, ANB, ans ASN before mixing out
with the sun. Continued with the tempo for MVFR ceilings at those
sites. Also continued added in prob30 for TSRA at MGM after 18z.
Winds become variable 5 kts overnight, then shift east southeast
behind the trough around 10 kts. Some MVFR clouds will once again
try to slide in from the east overnight after 9z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions are expected through the rest of the
week. Scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible
especially across the southern half of Central Alabama today and
Wednesday, and across all of Central Alabama by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
Anniston    89  73  91  75 /  20  10  30  10
Birmingham  93  75  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
Tuscaloosa  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
Calera      93  75  93  76 /  20  10  30  10
Auburn      88  74  90  75 /  30  10  50  20
Montgomery  92  75  92  76 /  40  20  60  20
Troy        91  73  91  73 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16