439
FXUS64 KBMX 050602
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 903 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

Widely scattered evening convection is decreasing in coverage as
we speak. Lowered the rain chances for several locations
overnight. Believe much of the activity expected ahead of the
approaching upper trough will be after sunrise on Friday. Due to
the low level moisture pooling ahead of this feature, increased
the pops on Friday. It appears that there may be a batch of
convection that moves in during the morning hours and also
redevelops/enhances in the afternoon. Not expecting any severe
thunderstorms at this time, but some areas may experience heavy
rainfall. It appears there will be enough sun that high
temperatures reach the mid 90s in many locations and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect through early Friday evening.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will contract slightly over the area while
surface high pressure becomes positioned to the southeast while an
outflow from convection across the Mid Mississippi River Valley
Region migrates southeast along outflow boundaries that will move
southeast into the Mid-South Region.

Expect partly cloudy skies tonight with isolated showers
lingering across the northwest with some thicker clouds expected.
Winds will be form the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will be
in the mid 70s areawide.

Friday.

More modest ridging will extend zonally over the Gulf Coast
region while a trough dives southeast over the Midwest region
during the day. A surface cold front will move southeast into the
Mid-South Region during the morning and advance further southeast
toward the area by midday.

Expect increasing clouds from the northwest on Friday with
increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms with best
potential northwest through midday, then expanding southeast with
time through the afternoon and into early evening. Winds will be
from the west at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the
low 90s northwest and in the higher terrain east to the mid 90s
south and central. A heat advisory is being considered across much
of our far southern counties and some of our west-central
counties as thicker clouds and precipitation may not move into
those areas until later in the day as temperatures and humidity
values result in heat index values up to around 107 degrees by
early afternoon in some spots.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

No major changes have been made to the previous long-term forecast
this afternoon. Through Friday night, scattered to numerous
showers and storms should be ongoing as the surface front moves
into northwestern Alabama. With the loss of daytime heating,
coverage will decrease, but at least scattered convection will
remain possible through the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
As drier air advects southward at the surface and aloft by
Saturday afternoon, highest rain chances will remain across the
southern half of Central Alabama by Saturday afternoon.
Thankfully, heat indices will decrease due to the drier air, but
we`ll stay hot as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. The surface
front is still expected to move back northward by Sunday and into
Monday as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly. Guidance trends are
continuing to indicate a fairly wet pattern shaping up through
much of next week, with a tropical airmass setting up and
scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon hours through
next Wednesday.

56/GDG

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast
period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down
into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually
spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will
persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though
not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central
Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance
has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday
though some guidance has recently trended back the other way.
Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the
weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the
front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will
persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat
advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday
depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift
back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has
already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This
combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough
should result in above average chances of showers and storms next
week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern
Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased
coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just
below 105.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

VFR conditions start the period at all forecast terminals. Will
need to watch for low clouds and light fog developing around
sunrise. For now, will hold off on reduced flight conditions given
the current lack of development.

A front and convective system will approach the area from the
northwest after 12Z. Expect increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Cigs could fall to MVFR
with convection, but generally cigs will be in the 5-6kft range.
Storms could produce heavy rainfall, reducing vis at times.
Outside of a localized strong wind gust associated with a storm,
winds will be at or less than 6kts.

The front will slow and stall across the area, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible through the end of the
period.


14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the day on Sunday.
Following scattered showers and storms today, more widespread
coverage is expected on Friday as a front moves into the region.
With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50
percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average
less than 10 mph through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  71  92  67 /  80  60  40  10
Anniston    94  74  91  70 /  80  60  50  10
Birmingham  94  74  92  72 /  80  60  40  10
Tuscaloosa  94  74  92  71 /  70  60  40  10
Calera      94  75  92  72 /  80  60  50  10
Auburn      93  75  92  73 /  70  60  80  20
Montgomery  94  74  94  73 /  70  60  80  20
Troy        94  74  93  72 /  70  60  80  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...14