115
FXUS61 KBGM 020526
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
126 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across the area,
bringing fair weather and increasing temperatures through
Wednesday. A frontal system will move into the region Wednesday
night into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms lingering
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM Update...
Still a few clouds hanging on to the terrain of eastern Otsego-
Delaware counties, otherwise clear. In for a good night of
radiational cooling. There is still a bit of advective wind at
the moment, but we get calming conditions in sheltered valleys
especially in the few hours up to and including dawn. We
actually did not get full mixing down of dry air, so dewpoint
depressions will be narrow enough to allow valley fog formation
given the setup, especially any valleys that had recent
rainfall. Dewpoints this evening have continued to run a few
degrees higher than guidance had suggested, increasing
confidence for that fog. Patchy fog has been expanded to
additional valleys accordingly where needed. Forecast otherwise
remains on track with a cool crisp night ahead.

Previous discussion...
Still plenty of fair weather cu around the area this afternoon,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailing. NW winds have
been a little breezy, gusting 20 to 25 mph at times.
Temperatures have generally been in the upper-60s to lower-70s,
though areas near and north of the Thruway have managed to warm
up into the mid-70s.

Clouds will dissipate quickly after sunset, and with high
pressure moving overhead, winds will become light and variable.
Temperatures look to drop into the upper-40s by dawn. Patchy
valley fog will be possible along the Susquehanna, especially
the upper tributaries.

Return flow will bring warmer temperatures back to the area for
tomorrow (Tuesday), with highs returning to the 80s. The period
will remain precip-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure squeezes out one
more nicer day before a weak frontal boundary moves through on
Independence day. Chances for showers and storms are possible
for the holiday. The chance for any storms to become severe is
low due to lack of instability. Temperatures will be in the
mid-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Another weak system will continue giving chances for showers and
storms for Friday and Saturday, with a break heading into next
week. Warm and humid conditions expected through the long-term
period, with temperatures will be summerlike in the low- to
high-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period.
Patchy fog may develop between now and 12z at ELM, ITH, BGM, and
AVP. Guidance only has low visibilities at ITH but conditions
look favorable at the other terminals listed. Based on
climatology, confidence is highest at ELM. The one concern is
that winds just above the surface may be slightly stronger, at
least based on model soundings, and that may be enough to limit
the fog. Conditions will be monitored and some amendments may be
needed as fog develops (or doesn`t develop). Otherwise, skies
will be clear until fair weather, mid-level clouds develop this
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable this morning. During the
afternoon hours, winds settle between south and east with speeds
between 5 and 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BTL