629
WTNT32 KNHC 021149
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
800 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 67.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 67.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to
continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of
days and turn westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on
Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening should begin later
today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane
intensity as it moves into the central Caribbean and passes near
Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42059 to the north of the eye recently
reported sustained winds of 72 mph (115 km/h) and a wind gust of
94 mph (151 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman
Islands.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the
immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on
Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall
from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of
Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven